29807 Cielo St

Laureles, TX 78566

$208,500B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,093
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $501/mo
• Annual: $6,010/yr
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.29%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $58,380

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $205k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,404 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laureles El (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 639 students, 90% FRL); Liberty Memorial Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 717 students, 88% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 43% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.