29807 Cielo St · Laureles, TX 78566

$208,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2016 0.55 ac lot Est $265k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property offers a 4-bedroom split floor plan with 2 full baths on a 0.55-acre lot. The home includes a renovated kitchen with quartz countertops, updated bathrooms, and laminate flooring throughout for consistent interior flow. The layout provides functional living areas and a dedicated laundry room. The spacious lot supports a country-style living environment with open outdoor space suitable for general use. Located in Los Fresnos with access to nearby services and major roadways, the home offers a practical setting for a variety of living needs.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Laminate flooring
• Open outdoor space

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• OPEN OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $208k).
• Recommended offer: $205k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,404 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laureles El (math 36% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 639 students, 90% FRL); Liberty Memorial Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 717 students, 88% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 43% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,372 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.29%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32651 Jorge St	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-3%)	23mo	$257,500	$180	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $89,353
• Equity at exit: $128,197

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $238,512
• Equity at exit: $230,037

Cash invested: $58,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78566

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,093
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,631/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $208,500

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $560	+0% $501	+5% $442	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $410	+0% $501	+5% $592	+10% $683
Rate	-1.0pp $606	-0.5pp $554	base $501	+0.5pp $447	+1.0pp $392

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,125
• Closing costs: $6,255
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30816 Muraya St Los Fresnos, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   listed $208,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,816 · $318/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,185/yr (+$182/mo · 134.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,631
• − Insurance: −$1,042
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$6,065
• Taxable income: $2,766
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$664
• After-tax cash flow: $5,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Los Fresnos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4828290
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,586
• Composite: 32.92/100
• National rank: #5601
• State rank: #444 of 826 in TX

Livability — Laureles

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1404
• US rank: #24046

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Laureles, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,927

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 45% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Spanish 67%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Current HPI: 218.1236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $208,500 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,631 · -4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.