427 Smith Chapel Rd

Albany, KY 42602

$79,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,753 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $277/mo
• Annual: $3,326/yr
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#172 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clinton County (rural): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #141 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clinton County Early Childhood Center (231 students, 80% FRL); Clinton County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 444 students, 79% FRL); Clinton County High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 422 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 59% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP.
• Clinton County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.3% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.