427 Smith Chapel Rd · Albany, KY 42602

$79,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,753 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1952 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy country living in this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Home offers large living room, dining room, kitchen and large utility room, 2 bedrooms on main floor, with propane heat, and attached carport. Property is located at the end of Smith Chapel Road

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Large living room
• Dining room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• PROPANE HEAT
• ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.3% in Albany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#172 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Clinton County (rural): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #141 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clinton County Early Childhood Center (231 students, 80% FRL); Clinton County Middle School (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 444 students, 79% FRL); Clinton County High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 422 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 59% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.87%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $4,721
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $26,906
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42602

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$524
• After-tax cash flow: $2,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clinton County
• NCES district ID: 2101260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,926
• Composite: 21.56/100
• National rank: #8310
• State rank: #141 of 165 in KY

Livability — Albany

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #8690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,138

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,900 people
• By 2030: 9,718 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 9,381 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 9,058 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 8,540 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 8,045 · -18.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.4) · D 11.2% · R 87.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -62.4pp · 2024: -76.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.4 2020: R+74.5 2016: R+73.2 2012: R+64.1 2008: R+62.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.48%
• Current HPI: 205.6426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $79,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-6.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $51 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.