1448 Briar Creek Rd

Williamsburg, KY 40769

$99,500C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $181/mo
• Annual: $2,174/yr
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $27,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (0.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $99k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $737 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#168 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whitley Central Intermediate School (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #201 of 676 statewide, top 30%, 454 students, 72% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 895% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.