1448 Briar Creek Rd · Williamsburg, KY 40769

$99,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 6.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A nice 1148 SF +/- home with 4 bedroom, living room, eat-in-kitchen, and one full bath located approximately 4.7 miles from town. New septic tank put in about 6 months ago. Perfect for a family and not too far from all the amenities of town. ( Walmart, water park. Dayspring, and the college.

Key facts

• New septic tank
• 4.7 miles from town
• 6 acre lot

Tags

• NEW SEPTIC TANK
• 4.7 MILES FROM TOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 6 acres (source: public records)
• Financial info: Parcel number 077-00-00-017.00
• HOA & community: No HOA information specified

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: One-story house
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built area: 1,148 (unit not specified)
• Exterior features: Secluded lot with many trees; Shed(s); Rural / trees and woods view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms: information not specified
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on main level; Electric dryer hookup; Washer, Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (0.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#168 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Whitley Central Intermediate School (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #201 of 676 statewide, top 30%, 454 students, 72% FRL); Whitley County Middle School (math 31% / reading 50%, grade F, #57 of 217 statewide, top 26%, 563 students, 80% FRL); Whitley County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 980 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $737 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 895% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,413

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.80%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,179
• Equity at exit: $25,262

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $28,545
• Equity at exit: $27,602

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40769

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $209	+0% $181	+5% $153	+10% $125
Rent	-10% $103	-5% $142	+0% $181	+5% $220	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $206	base $181	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,500 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 292-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $99,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 74.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,930
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $564
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$135
• After-tax cash flow: $2,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitley County
• NCES district ID: 2105880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,079
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6874
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #8601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,931

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.74%
• Current HPI: 163.6801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+895.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $99,500 ImagineMLS
• 2009-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $491 · +551.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.