8213 Briercrest St

Erie, PA 16509

$40,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1989 · Manufactured · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$670
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-234/mo
• Annual: $-2,808/yr
• Cap rate: -0.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.08%
• DSCR: -0.12
• 1% rule: 2.17%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2k (94.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2k (94.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robison El Sch (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #49 of 1,518 statewide, top 4%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Fort Leboeuf Ms (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #125 of 512 statewide, top 25%, 473 students, 46% FRL); Fort Leboeuf Shs (math 72% / reading 50%, grade C+, #77 of 437 statewide, top 17%, 663 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 77% of rent.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 94% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.