8213 Briercrest St · Erie, PA 16509

$40,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1989 $41/sqft · 17% below area Est $48k · 17% under $670/mo HOA · 77% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Lots of cabinets
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• HUGE KITCHEN
• LOTS OF CABINETS
• COUNTER SPACE
• APPLIANCES INCLUDED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $670; HOA fee includes sewer and trash

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fans; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window coverings and drapes; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2k (94.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $2k (94.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate -0.7% vs local median 5.4% in Erie — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Fort Leboeuf SD (rural): math 52% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #77 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robison El Sch (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #49 of 1,518 statewide, top 4%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Fort Leboeuf Ms (math 38% / reading 63%, grade C, #125 of 512 statewide, top 25%, 473 students, 46% FRL); Fort Leboeuf Shs (math 72% / reading 50%, grade C+, #77 of 437 statewide, top 17%, 663 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 77% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,363 (94.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 94% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.17% ✓
• Cap rate: -0.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -25.08%
• DSCR: -0.12
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,421
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -17.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1865 Northwood Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (-2%)	12mo	$63,000	$66	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -69.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-20,979
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.20×
• Total profit: $-35,801
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $287/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$670
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $2,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-211	-5% $-223	+0% $-234	+5% $-245	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-303	-5% $-268	+0% $-234	+5% $-200	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-224	base $-234	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $670 · $8,040/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $40,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    listed $40,000 Active 510-char remark
14. 2025-06-10
    soldstatus $36,000 Closed 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

15. 2025-04-09
    status Pending 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

16. 2024-10-26
    price $41,500 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

17. 2024-09-30
    price $42,800 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

18. 2024-08-23
    listed $46,900 Active 314-char remark

    Show marketing remark (314 chars)

    Wonderfully kept mobile home. Nice sized living room, eat-in applianced kitchen with lots of cabinetry, master bedroom with full bath, washer & dryer included, newer roof, hot water tank, mostly newer windows, storage shed, vaulted sunroom with sliding doors to deck. Affordable priced in this 55+ community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $287 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $460 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$172/yr (+$14/mo · 60.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$287
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − HOA: −$8,040
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable loss: −$3,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$762
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Leboeuf SD
• NCES district ID: 4209990
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $54,607
• Composite: 51.46/100
• National rank: #1725
• State rank: #77 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-14.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $40,000 GEBOR
• 2025-06-10 Sold (MLS) $36,000 GEBOR
• 2025-04-09 Pending — GEBOR
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $41,500 GEBOR
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $42,800 GEBOR
• 2024-08-23 Listed $46,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $287 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.