2606 Fresh Dawn Dr

Fresno, TX 77545

$330,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,642 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 283 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax + insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-149/mo
• Annual: $-1,792/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $92,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (2.5% below list).
• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 651 students, 76% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?