2606 Fresh Dawn Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

$330,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 283 Days on market

Built 2016 5,170 sqft lot $125/sqft · 6% above area Est $312k · 6% over $45/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and presentable house with large bedrooms in a relatively new subdivision near Amazon. Several quick and easy access to Medical Center. Beautiful stone house with home office, formal dining, granite countertop, Humogous primary bedrm,large family rm, large bedrms stainless steel appliances, Granite, dry breakfast bar, large covered patio, Fireplace, humogous Gameroom, etc.

Key facts

• 5,170 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Parks El (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 651 students, 76% FRL); Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 283 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 283 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,263
• List price: $330,000
• Delta: 5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2723 Fawn Mountain Dr	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,785 (+5%)	0mo	$359,000	$129	78
2611 Cottage Step Trl Trl	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,392 (-10%)	2mo	$295,000	$123	77
2618 Balsam Ridge Way	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,764 (+5%)	1mo	$300,000	$109	75
2543 Tucker Creek Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,323 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$129	70
2019 Damasi Ln	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,615 (-1%)	0mo	$319,000	$122	67
18555 Porta Marina Dr	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+5%)	1mo	$382,390	$137	64
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,480 (-6%)	1mo	$279,900	$113	58
18535 Porta Marina Dr	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,872 (+9%)	2mo	$390,950	$136	56
18411 Porta Marina Dr	0.71mi	4/3.5	2,782 (+5%)	1mo	$378,098	$136	56
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,340 (-11%)	1mo	$332,500	$142	54
18630 Serapis St	0.51mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,837 (+7%)	2mo	$426,840	$150	53
3007 Acacia Fair Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,351 (-11%)	2mo	$310,000	$132	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,844
• Equity at exit: $64,385

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-85,094
• Equity at exit: $55,304

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,217 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$778 /mo · $9,334/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,406

Max offer price $303,615

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $-56	+0% $-149	+5% $-243	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-276	+0% $-149	+5% $-22	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-65	base $-149	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-322

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	45d	1	0.19mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	7d	1	0.84mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	45d	1	0.88mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	22d	1	0.92mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	21d	1	0.95mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	45d	1	0.96mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	22d	1	1.08mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	3d	1	1.09mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	22d	1	1.09mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	22d	1	1.18mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	22d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 283 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $330,000 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 271 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $330,000 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2025-12-01
    price $330,000 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Clean and presentable house with large bedrooms in a relatively new subdivision near Amazon. Several quick and easy access to Medical Center. Beautiful stone house with home office, formal dining, granite countertop, Humogous primary bedrm,large family rm, large bedrms stainless steel appliances, Granite, dry breakfast bar, large covered patio, Fireplace, humogous Gameroom, etc.

15. 2025-11-25
    price $310,000 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Clean and presentable house with large bedrooms in a relatively new subdivision near Amazon. Several quick and easy access to Medical Center. Beautiful stone house with home office, formal dining, granite countertop, Humogous primary bedrm,large family rm, large bedrms stainless steel appliances, Granite, dry breakfast bar, large covered patio, Fireplace, humogous Gameroom, etc.

16. 2025-09-11
    listed $330,000 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Clean and presentable house with large bedrooms in a relatively new subdivision near Amazon. Several quick and easy access to Medical Center. Beautiful stone house with home office, formal dining, granite countertop, Humogous primary bedrm,large family rm, large bedrms stainless steel appliances, Granite, dry breakfast bar, large covered patio, Fireplace, humogous Gameroom, etc.

17. 2025-06-03
    historical
18. 2025-01-19
    listed $327,000 Active
19. 2025-01-17
    historical
20. 2025-01-17
    historical
21. 2024-06-26
    listed $327,000 Active
22. 2024-06-26
    historical
23. 2024-05-08
    price $335,000
24. 2024-05-08
    price $335
25. 2024-05-07
    listed $330 Active
26. 2024-05-06
    historical
27. 2024-03-04
    listed $345,000 Active
28. 2024-02-22
    historical
29. 2016-05-25
    historical
30. 2016-05-24
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2016-05-19
    soldstatus
32. 2016-05-03
    status Pending
33. 2016-04-20
    price $223,325
34. 2016-02-17
    listed $221,210 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,334 · $778/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,334 · $778/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$9,334
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,088
• − Management: −$3,088
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$7,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,723
• After-tax cash flow: $-69/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-19 Listed $327,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $327,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $335 HARMLS
• 2024-05-07 Listed $330 HARMLS
• 2024-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-22 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2016-05-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-05-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-04-20 Price Changed $223,325 HARMLS
• 2016-02-17 Listed $221,210 HARMLS

Property tax history

+38.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,334 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.