2273 Obert Rd

Alford, FL 32431

$134,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,591/yr
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.4% below list).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Alford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.