2273 Obert Rd · Alford, FL 32431

$134,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1999 1.76 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A Beautiful 3/2 on spacious 1.76-acre parcel. Great location, right next to I-10 and Hwy 231. Metal roof and a new 2025 Hvac, A spacious, open concept floor plan featuring a fireplace and luxury vinyl plank throughout. Nice master suite with double vanities, separate tub and shower. Large covered back porch. Two additional buildings, one metal with a carport, and the other an older block carport with storage. Priced to sell. Schedule your visit today!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New hvac
• Luxury vinyl plank

Tags

• SPACIOUS PARCEL
• METAL ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• FIREPLACE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces
• Home design: Double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Dirt road access; Lot approximately 1.76 acres (dimensions ~335 x 262)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor; Bedroom sizes include 13 x 11, 11 x 12, and 14 x 12
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 2.8% in Alford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $87,154
• Equity at exit: $121,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $245,707
• Equity at exit: $262,081

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32431

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,276 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $342/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $134,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $134,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $134,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-05-20
   price $134,900
8. 2026-04-15
   status Active
9. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-06
    status Active
11. 2026-03-27
    status Pending
12. 2026-03-12
    status Active
13. 2026-03-04
    status Pending
14. 2026-02-14
    status Active
15. 2025-12-05
    price $149,000
16. 2025-10-16
    listed $159,900 Active
17. 2024-12-18
    historical
18. 2024-11-14
    status Active
19. 2024-11-13
    status Pending
20. 2024-09-20
    status Active
21. 2024-09-19
    price $134,900
22. 2024-09-18
    historical
23. 2024-07-25
    status Active
24. 2024-07-25
    price $139,900
25. 2024-07-05
    historical Active Under Contract
26. 2024-06-18
    listed $149,900 Active
27. 2024-06-11
    historical
28. 2024-06-05
    status Active
29. 2024-06-04
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2024-05-02
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $342 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 227.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$342
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,225
• − Management: −$1,225
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$88
• After-tax cash flow: $2,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alford

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #819
• US rank: #20017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,887

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 16% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.20%
• Current HPI: 208.19
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $134,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $149,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $159,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2024-09-20 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $134,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-09-18 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-07-05 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Listed $149,900 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-05 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-04 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2024-05-02 Listed $139,900 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $342 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.