112 Sukey Ridge Rd

Harlan, KY 40806

$51,600B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$271
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $372/mo
• Annual: $4,465/yr
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.61%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $14,448

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $52k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $357 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $411 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#426 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan Independent (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #54 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harlan Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 345 students, 66% FRL); Harlan High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 391 students, 64% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.