112 Sukey Ridge Rd · Harlan, KY 40806

$51,600

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1930 0.95 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This cozy two bedroom, two bath home has lots of potential Inside!! Outside it has a nice private side yard and gorgeous mountain views!

Key facts

• Private side yard
• Mountain views
• 0.95 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SIDE YARD
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($994 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#426 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Harlan Independent (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #54 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harlan Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 345 students, 66% FRL); Harlan High School (math 23% / reading 51%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 391 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $357 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $411 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harlan County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $57/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,826 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.61%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Highway 840	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,184 (+2%)	9mo	$114,900	$97	70
181 W Highway 72	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+10%)	12mo	$74,500	$58	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $20,340
• Equity at exit: $12,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $53,128
• Equity at exit: $14,047

Cash invested: $14,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40806

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $994 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$271
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$57 /mo · $680/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $523

Max offer price $51,600

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $408	-5% $390	+0% $372	+5% $354	+10% $336
Rent	-10% $294	-5% $333	+0% $372	+5% $411	+10% $451
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $385	base $372	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,900
• Closing costs: $1,548
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2025-05-05
   listed $51,600 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,890
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$954
• − Management: −$954
• − Depreciation: −$1,501
• Taxable income: $3,917
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$940
• After-tax cash flow: $3,525/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlan Independent
• NCES district ID: 2102520
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $25,210
• Composite: 30.8/100
• National rank: #6143
• State rank: #54 of 165 in KY

Livability — Harlan

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #20649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,827

Population outlook (Harlan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,324 people
• By 2030: 22,492 · -7.5%
• By 2040: 19,052 · -21.7%
• By 2050: 16,060 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 10,525 · -56.7%
• By 2100: 6,933 · -71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harlan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.2) · D 11.6% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -76.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.2 2020: R+71.8 2016: R+72.2 2012: R+64.0 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Current HPI: 171.773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-05 Listed $51,600 ImagineMLS