8649 Areca Ln

Jurupa Valley, CA 92509

$639,990F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,530
• Tax + insurance: −$1,122
• HOA: −$277
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$943
• Net cashflow: $-1,381/mo
• Annual: $-16,571/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $188,462

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $640k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $449k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $449k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,170 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Jurupa Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #953 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pacific Avenue Academy of Music (307 students, 83% FRL); Mission Middle (694 students, 89% FRL); Rubidoux High (1,407 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 64% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 289 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Jurupa Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $4,491/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.