Is 8649 Areca Ln in Jurupa Valley, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.8% cap rate and $-1,381/mo modeled cash flow at a $639,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 8649 Areca Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 3.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,491/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 28.32

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.7/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.8/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.1/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$639,990

8649 Areca Ln · Jurupa Valley, CA 92509

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,235 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,012 sqft lot Garage $277/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

A 5-Bedroom home at this price?! Fantastic. Price improvement makes this home a steal! BRAND NEW HOME. MOVE-IN READY. PREPAID SOLAR (YOU OWN IT)! Welcome to brand-new single-family homes in the desirable Las Palmas community! This thoughtfully designed home offers 5 bedrooms plus a spacious bonus room, 3 baths, and 2,235 square feet of modern, open-concept living. MOVE-IN READY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION. The expansive great room flows seamlessly into a stylish chef’s kitchen featuring a large center island, Shaker-style Cashmere thermofoil cabinetry throughout with black matte handles, Farmhouse sink with black matte faucet, and a walk-in pantry.

Key facts

Chef's kitchen
Walk-in pantry
Smart home features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $640k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $473k (26.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $449k (29.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $449k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 3.0% in Jurupa Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,170 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Jurupa Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #953 of 1,400 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Pacific Avenue Academy of Music (307 students, 83% FRL); Mission Middle (694 students, 89% FRL); Rubidoux High (1,407 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 64% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $4,491/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($95k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $449,055 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 3.83%
Cash-on-cash: -8.79%
DSCR: 0.61
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $673,077
List price: $639,990
Delta: -4.92%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8601 Areca Ln	0.02mi	5/3.0	2,235 (0%)	1mo	$669,990	$300	98
8685 Areca Ln	0.01mi	5/3.0	2,235 (0%)	3mo	$639,990	$286	97
8697 Areca Ln	0.02mi	5/3.0	2,235 (0%)	3mo	$683,264	$306	96
8733 Areca Ln	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,235 (0%)	3mo	$677,223	$303	96
8673 Areca Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,005 (-10%)	3mo	$599,990	$299	72
8721 Areca Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,005 (-10%)	2mo	$650,336	$324	72
6186 Covello St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,400 (+7%)	2mo	$557,000	$232	50
5065 Pinto St	0.51mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,022 (-10%)	14mo	$685,000	$339	43
4485 Riverview Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-14%)	13mo	$689,999	$361	43
7148 Ridgeline	0.75mi	6/4.0 (+1)	2,366 (+6%)	5mo	$880,000	$372	42
4525 Riverview Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,912 (-14%)	19mo	$675,000	$353	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.8%
Equity multiple: -0.08×
Total profit: $-204,292
Equity at exit: $100,358

10-year hold

IRR: -54.8%
Equity multiple: -0.70×
Total profit: $-319,968
Equity at exit: $58,195

Cash invested: $188,462 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 12 under contract
Months of supply: 3.9 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $669,990 ($371/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -18.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92509

Rents YoY: 1.3%
Active inventory: 288
Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,491 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$3,530
Tax est. 1.5%: −$841 /mo · $10,096/yr
Insurance: −$280
HOA: −$277
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$943
Net cashflow: $-1,381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,239

Max offer price $473,251

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-916	-5% $-1,148	+0% $-1,381	+5% $-1,614	+10% $-1,846
Rent	-10% $-1,736	-5% $-1,558	+0% $-1,381	+5% $-1,204	+10% $-1,026
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,042	-0.5pp $-1,210	base $-1,381	+0.5pp $-1,555	+1.0pp $-1,733

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $168,269
Closing costs: $20,192
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6676 Coloma Way Jurupa Valley, CA	4.0	2.0	1413	$2,600	$1.84	101d	1	1.33mi
3062 Flagstaff Dr Jurupa Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,900	$1.56	7d	1	1.36mi
3434 Pontiac Ave Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1737	$3,450	$1.99	33d	1	1.39mi
6599 Bryce Canyon Ct Jurupa Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$5,400	$1.93	32d	1	1.46mi
6599 Bryce Canyon Ct Jurupa Valley, CA	4.0	3.0	2800	$7,500	$2.68	139d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Property subject to special assessments and Mello-Roos
HOA & community: Part of Las Palmas Community CorporationMonthly association fee ($277)Community amenities include sport court, playground, maintained grounds and picnic areaCommunity features: curbs, street lighting, storm drains, sidewalks, suburban setting, park36 units in the communityBuilder: RC Hobbs; Model: Plan 3

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with direct garage accessNo drivewayTwo parking spaces / two garage spaces
Security: Fire sprinklers, carbon monoxide detectors and fire & smoke detection system
Utilities: Public sewerDistrict/public waterSewer, electricity and water connected
Home design: HouseTwo storiesEntry on 1st levelPlanned developmentUnder constructionNo accessory dwelling unit (ADU)Near public transit and park nearby
Construction: Tile roof (flat tile)
Exterior features: Rain guttersPatio home settingPatio presentVinyl fencing

Interior

Kitchen: Kitchen open to family roomKitchen islandQuartz countersWalk-in pantryBuilt-in trash/recyclingBreakfast counter / bar and formal dining areaGarbage disposalMicrowaveSelf-cleaning ovenFree standing range / electric rangeDishwasherWater line to refrigeratorHigh-efficiency water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroomAll bedrooms located upstairsMain floor bedroom includedWalk-in closet
Flooring: Wood and laminated flooringCarpetSee remarks
Bathrooms: Three full bathsDouble sinks in master bathDouble sinks in bath(s)Walk-in showerBathtubCloset in bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central coolingCentral furnace heating
Interior features: Open floor planPantryWired for dataUnfurnishedQuartz countersLow emissivity windows with screensFire sprinklers, carbon monoxide detectors and fire & smoke detection system
Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper levelInside laundry in individual roomWasher hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $639,990 Active 162 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $639,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $639,990 Active 160 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $639,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $639,990 Active 158 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $639,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $639,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $639,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $639,990 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $639,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $639,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $639,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $639,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $649,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $649,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $649,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $649,990 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $649,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $649,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $649,990 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $649,990 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $649,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $649,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-24

statusdays on market $649,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 128 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 127 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 126 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 125 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 124 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 123 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 122 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 121 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 120 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 119 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 118 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 117 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 116 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 114 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 113 DOM
2026-08-04

statusdays on market $649,990 Active Under Contract 112 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $649,990 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $649,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $649,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $649,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $649,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $649,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $649,990 Active 101 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $53,887
− Mortgage interest: −$37,703
− Property taxes: −$10,096
− Insurance: −$3,365
− Repairs & maintenance: −$4,311
− Management: −$4,311
− HOA: −$3,324
− Depreciation: −$19,580
Taxable loss: −$28,804

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,913
After-tax cash flow: $-9,658/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new single-family home in the Las Palmas community is move-in ready with modern finishes and a spacious layout. It offers excellent curb appeal and interior condition, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
Resale Kitchen backsplash installation — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the kitchen's value. ↑
Both Smart home integration — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental appeal by adding convenience and technology. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stone Avenue Elementary Middle Mission Middle High Rubidoux High

Schools (NCES district)

District: Jurupa Unified
NCES district ID: 0619260
Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 2.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income: $58,100
Composite: 30.97/100
National rank: #11327
State rank: #953 of 1400 in CA

F Composite livability gradescore 49/100

Livability — Jurupa Valley

Score: 49/100
State rank: #1170
US rank: #25915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Jurupa Valley, CA
County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
City population: 119,165
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP): 81,182
Household income: $95,355
Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (74%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 74% White 17% Two or more races 16% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -374.91%
Current HPI: 464.8939
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-04-17 Price Changed $674,990 CRMLS
2026-04-14 Listed $689,990 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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