JACKSON Plan

Fairhope, AL 36532

$384,650F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 470 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,475
• Tax + insurance: −$787
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-1,023/mo
• Annual: $-12,282/yr
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $132,157

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $283k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairhope West Elementary (math 54% / reading 73%, grade B, #46 of 627 statewide, top 8%, 1,007 students, 39% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 45% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baldwin County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.