JACKSON Plan · Fairhope, AL 36532

$384,650

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,012 sqft · SingleFamily · 470 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Jackson, a single-story floor plan in our Harvest Green East new home community of Fairhope, Alabama. This seamless layout boasts 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and plenty of space. With four modern exteriors to choose from, the Jackson's curb appeal is sure to leave a lasting impression. As you enter through the front door, the foyer leads you passed two well-appointed bedrooms, a full bathroom with a shower/bathtub combination, and the direct access point to the garage. The open kitchen features a large central island that overlooks the living room and a separate dining nook. Boasting modern shaker-style cabinetry, the kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and a separate pantry for added storage. Connected to the living room is the back door that leads to a spacious rear patio, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The flow of this area makes it a great space for entertaining. Behind the dining nook sits two more generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom with a linen closet, and the laundry room. The primary suite is on the back side of the home and boasts a large walk-in closet and luxurious ensuite. The bathroom features dual vanities, a large soaking tub, an enclosed shower, and a water closet for extra privacy. Built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, this floor plan offers exceptional durability and can potentially lower your homeowner's insurance costs. This home also comes with a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural w

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Community pool
• Covered pool patio

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• COVERED POOL PATIO
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• MULTIPLE LAKES
• VERSATILE FLOOR PLANS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT

🏗️ New construction. The $384,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $471,989.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 470 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,331 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 470 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.29%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,989
• List price: $384,650
• Delta: -18.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Polenta Ave	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,030 (+1%)	3mo	$387,018	$191	77
134 Millet Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (-3%)	3mo	$364,504	$187	67
574 Morning Mist Way	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,177 (+8%)	3mo	$477,137	$219	66
305 Polenta Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,884 (-6%)	1mo	$377,078	$200	66
282 Tillage St	0.17mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (+12%)	3mo	$426,530	$190	63
406 Alfalfa St	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,304 (+14%)	2mo	$448,956	$195	62
418 Alfalfa St	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,250 (+12%)	3mo	$435,932	$194	62
129 Millet Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,231 (+11%)	4mo	$415,679	$186	57
145 Millet Ave	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,231 (+11%)	4mo	$416,980	$187	56
570 Morning Mist Way	0.41mi	5/2.0	2,277 (+13%)	1mo	$496,000	$218	54
567 Morning Mist Way	0.42mi	5/2.0	2,277 (+13%)	1mo	$484,469	$213	54
560 Morning Mist Way	0.45mi	5/2.0	2,277 (+13%)	4mo	$473,458	$208	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-141,769
• Equity at exit: $70,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-207,799
• Equity at exit: $40,809

Cash invested: $132,157 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,833 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,475
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$590 /mo · $7,080/yr
• Insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $-1,023

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,129

Max offer price $323,888

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-697	-5% $-860	+0% $-1,023	+5% $-1,187	+10% $-1,350
Rent	-10% $-1,247	-5% $-1,135	+0% $-1,023	+5% $-912	+10% $-800
Rate	-1.0pp $-786	-0.5pp $-903	base $-1,023	+0.5pp $-1,146	+1.0pp $-1,270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,997
• Closing costs: $14,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
298 Tillage St Fairhope, AL	5.0	2.5	2431	$2,900	$1.19	45d	1	0.21mi
9704 Chariot Ave Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,000	$1.10	22d	1	0.98mi
9989 Dunleith Loop Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	2310	$2,595	$1.12	14d	1	1.13mi
23294 Shadowridge Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,150	$1.17	22d	1	1.29mi
23162 Shadowridge Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	45d	1	1.30mi
23234 Shadowridge Dr Daphne, AL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,000	$1.12	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $384,650 Active 470 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $384,650 Active 468 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,650 Active 467 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,650 Active 466 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,650 Active 465 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,650 Active 464 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $384,650 Active 462 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $384,650 Active 461 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $383,650 Active 459 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $383,650 Active 458 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $383,650 Active 457 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $383,650 Active 456 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $383,650 Active 452 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $383,650 Active 451 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $383,650 Active 450 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $383,650 Active 449 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $383,650 Active 448 DOM
18. 2026-03-12
    price $383,650 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Introducing the Jackson, a single-story floor plan in our Harvest Green East new home community of Fairhope, Alabama. This seamless layout boasts 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and plenty of space. With four modern exteriors to choose from, the Jackson's curb appeal is sure to leave a lasting impression. As you enter through the front door, the foyer leads you passed two well-appointed bedrooms, a full bathroom with a shower/bathtub combination, and the direct access point to the garage. The open kitchen features a large central island that overlooks the living room and a separate dining nook. Boasting modern shaker-style cabinetry, the kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and a separate pantry for added storage. Connected to the living room is the back door that leads to a spacious rear patio, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The flow of this area makes it a great space for entertaining. Behind the dining nook sits two more generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom with a linen closet, and the laundry room. The primary suite is on the back side of the home and boasts a large walk-in closet and luxurious ensuite. The bathroom features dual vanities, a large soaking tub, an enclosed shower, and a water closet for extra privacy. Built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, this floor plan offers exceptional durability and can potentially lower your homeowner's insurance costs. This home also comes with a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural w

19. 2025-11-11
    price $382,900 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Introducing the Jackson, a single-story floor plan in our Harvest Green East new home community of Fairhope, Alabama. This seamless layout boasts 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and plenty of space. With four modern exteriors to choose from, the Jackson's curb appeal is sure to leave a lasting impression. As you enter through the front door, the foyer leads you passed two well-appointed bedrooms, a full bathroom with a shower/bathtub combination, and the direct access point to the garage. The open kitchen features a large central island that overlooks the living room and a separate dining nook. Boasting modern shaker-style cabinetry, the kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and a separate pantry for added storage. Connected to the living room is the back door that leads to a spacious rear patio, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The flow of this area makes it a great space for entertaining. Behind the dining nook sits two more generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom with a linen closet, and the laundry room. The primary suite is on the back side of the home and boasts a large walk-in closet and luxurious ensuite. The bathroom features dual vanities, a large soaking tub, an enclosed shower, and a water closet for extra privacy. Built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, this floor plan offers exceptional durability and can potentially lower your homeowner's insurance costs. This home also comes with a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural w

20. 2025-08-08
    price $381,900 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Introducing the Jackson, a single-story floor plan in our Harvest Green East new home community of Fairhope, Alabama. This seamless layout boasts 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and plenty of space. With four modern exteriors to choose from, the Jackson's curb appeal is sure to leave a lasting impression. As you enter through the front door, the foyer leads you passed two well-appointed bedrooms, a full bathroom with a shower/bathtub combination, and the direct access point to the garage. The open kitchen features a large central island that overlooks the living room and a separate dining nook. Boasting modern shaker-style cabinetry, the kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and a separate pantry for added storage. Connected to the living room is the back door that leads to a spacious rear patio, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The flow of this area makes it a great space for entertaining. Behind the dining nook sits two more generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom with a linen closet, and the laundry room. The primary suite is on the back side of the home and boasts a large walk-in closet and luxurious ensuite. The bathroom features dual vanities, a large soaking tub, an enclosed shower, and a water closet for extra privacy. Built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, this floor plan offers exceptional durability and can potentially lower your homeowner's insurance costs. This home also comes with a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural w

21. 2025-03-08
    listed $379,900 Active 1502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1502 chars)

    Introducing the Jackson, a single-story floor plan in our Harvest Green East new home community of Fairhope, Alabama. This seamless layout boasts 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and plenty of space. With four modern exteriors to choose from, the Jackson's curb appeal is sure to leave a lasting impression. As you enter through the front door, the foyer leads you passed two well-appointed bedrooms, a full bathroom with a shower/bathtub combination, and the direct access point to the garage. The open kitchen features a large central island that overlooks the living room and a separate dining nook. Boasting modern shaker-style cabinetry, the kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances and a separate pantry for added storage. Connected to the living room is the back door that leads to a spacious rear patio, perfect for enjoying the outdoors. The flow of this area makes it a great space for entertaining. Behind the dining nook sits two more generously sized bedrooms, a full bathroom with a linen closet, and the laundry room. The primary suite is on the back side of the home and boasts a large walk-in closet and luxurious ensuite. The bathroom features dual vanities, a large soaking tub, an enclosed shower, and a water closet for extra privacy. Built to Gold FORTIFIED Home™ certification, this floor plan offers exceptional durability and can potentially lower your homeowner's insurance costs. This home also comes with a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural w

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,439
• − Property taxes: −$7,080
• − Insurance: −$2,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,720
• − Management: −$2,720
• − Depreciation: −$13,731
• Taxable loss: −$21,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,052
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $383,650 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $382,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $381,900 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Listed $379,900 Zillow