1202 Wilcox St

Petersburg, VA 23803

$139,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,168/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $82/mo
• Annual: $983/yr
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.51%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($983/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.5% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pleasants Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 540 students, 102% FRL); Vernon Johns Middle (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #330 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 921 students, 99% FRL); Petersburg High (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 1,080 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $140k implies a 881% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.