1202 Wilcox St · Petersburg, VA 23803

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1945 6,298 sqft lot Est $140k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

Key facts

• New sewer lateral
• Strong rental setup
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW WATER LINES
• NEW SEWER LATERAL
• STRONG RENTAL SETUP
• MAJOR SYSTEM IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Frame construction; R-3 zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Wall-mounted cooling units
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms; Full bathroom with tub and shower in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($983/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#413 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Petersburg City Public School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #131 of 131 in VA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pleasants Lane Elementary (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,108 statewide, top 97%, 540 students, 102% FRL); Vernon Johns Middle (math 21% / reading 47%, grade F, #330 of 342 statewide, top 96%, 921 students, 99% FRL); Petersburg High (math 43% / reading 62%, grade C-, #293 of 319 statewide, top 92%, 1,080 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 118 units permitted in Petersburg city in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Petersburg County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 5.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $140k implies a 881% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,761 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.51%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $140,244
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
917 Lee Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0	768 (-5%)	4mo	$80,000	$104	75
1015 Lee Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	792 (-2%)	9mo	$167,500	$211	74
520 Pegram St	0.22mi	2/1.0	893 (+11%)	1mo	$165,000	$185	71
650 S Jones St	0.50mi	2/0.5	800 (-1%)	4mo	$50,000	$63	70
817 Arlington St	0.53mi	2/1.0	820 (+2%)	4mo	$129,900	$158	69
1227 Hilton Pl	0.60mi	2/1.0	808 (+0%)	9mo	$121,500	$150	64
1401 Hanover St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	816 (+1%)	2mo	$200,000	$245	61
1250 Hilton Pl	0.54mi	2/1.0	902 (+12%)	2mo	$95,000	$105	53
1217 Mckenzie St	0.60mi	2/1.0	720 (-11%)	5mo	$154,500	$215	50
807 Mckenzie St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (+7%)	0mo	$175,000	$203	49
509 N Dunlop St	0.69mi	2/1.5	720 (-11%)	9mo	$125,000	$174	41
1730 Dupuy Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+15%)	9mo	$70,000	$76	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $14,363
• Equity at exit: $51,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $64,350
• Equity at exit: $70,473

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,064

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $121	+0% $82	+5% $42	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $36	+0% $82	+5% $128	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $152	-0.5pp $117	base $82	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1121 Stainback St Unit 5202 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	46d	1	0.08mi
1121 Stainback St Unit 2108 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	26d	1	0.08mi
1111 Stainback St Apt 2 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	46d	1	0.12mi
408 S West St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	23d	1	0.12mi
929 Farmer St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	26d	1	0.27mi
212 S Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	46d	1	0.33mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 400 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	892	$1,500	$1.68	46d	1	0.49mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 211 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,199	$1.80	46d	1	0.49mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	21d	2	0.55mi
801 Hinton St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,395	$1.87	0d	8	0.55mi
301 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	638	$1,112	$1.74	21d	2	0.57mi
301 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	609	$998	$1.64	0d	5	0.57mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 119 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	988	$1,399	$1.42	46d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,210	$1.81	21d	3	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 404 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	863	$1,400	$1.62	46d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 302 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	630	$1,099	$1.74	46d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 115 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,235	$1.85	26d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Unit 103 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	632	$1,049	$1.66	26d	1	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,395	$1.74	0d	11	0.58mi
214 N Dunlop St Apt 305 Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	945	$1,350	$1.43	46d	1	0.58mi
647 W Washington St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	595	$595	$1.00	18d	1	0.59mi
712 High St Unit 9 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,100	$1.64	46d	1	0.66mi
712 High St Unit 3 Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	539	$999	$1.85	46d	1	0.66mi
714 High St Apt E Petersburg, VA	2.0	2.0	924	$1,300	$1.41	23d	1	0.66mi
1131 Hawk St Petersburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	46d	1	0.72mi
1528 Lincoln St Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	673	$895	$1.33	18d	1	0.75mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	797	$1,395	$1.75	16d	9	0.79mi
325 Brown St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,310	$1.69	23d	2	0.79mi
109 Perry St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,577	$2.00	0d	12	0.80mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 10 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	46d	1	0.85mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 15 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	650	$895	$1.38	26d	1	0.87mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 20 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	46d	1	0.87mi
1517 Halifax St Unit 3 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	600	$1,195	$1.99	12d	1	0.88mi
16 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	769	$2,312	$3.01	0d	18	0.91mi
3301 Main St Unit A South Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.0	990	$1,100	$1.11	0d	1	0.95mi
1516 W Clara Dr Unit 8 Petersburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	19d	1	0.97mi
9 S Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	721	$1,350	$1.87	19d	6	0.98mi
9 N Market St Petersburg, VA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,199	$1.80	23d	1	0.99mi
21512 Jackson St South Chesterfield, VA	1.0	1.0	1010	$1,150	$1.14	46d	1	0.99mi
2125 Dupuy Rd Petersburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1063	$1,299	$1.22	0d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-05-23
    listed $139,900 Active
12. 2017-01-18
    soldstatus $14,256 Closed 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

13. 2016-12-02
    status Pending 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

14. 2016-11-19
    price $16,200 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

15. 2016-09-22
    price $18,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

16. 2016-08-24
    listed $21,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom cottage adjacent to Farmer Street Park -- enjoy pool, basketball, tennis, playground and picnic areas. Wood floors in bedrooms, kitchen with range and refrigerator, fenced yard, and paved driveway for offstreet parking. HUD home, sold as-is.

17. 2016-08-07
    historical
18. 2016-05-10
    listed $30,000 Active
19. 2016-05-10
    historical
20. 2016-04-13
    listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,147 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 96.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petersburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102910
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,362
• Composite: 28.78/100
• National rank: #6670
• State rank: #131 of 131 in VA

Livability — Petersburg

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #17309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petersburg, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 63,420
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Petersburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,488 people
• By 2030: 29,771 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 28,401 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 27,279 · -10.5%
• By 2075: 25,877 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 24,288 · -20.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Petersburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+72.8) · D 85.8% · R 13.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 78.5pp · 2024: 72.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+72.8 2020: D+76.5 2016: D+77.0 2012: D+80.4 2008: D+78.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+366.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $139,900 CVRMLS
• 2017-01-18 Sold (MLS) $14,256 CVRMLS
• 2016-12-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2016-11-19 Price Changed $16,200 CVRMLS
• 2016-09-22 Price Changed $18,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-08-24 Listed $21,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-08-07 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2016-05-10 Listed $30,000 CVRMLS
• 2016-05-10 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2016-04-13 Listed $30,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +62.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.