Big Bend Plan

Las Cruces, NM 88012

$298,990F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,313/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax + insurance: −$649
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-865/mo
• Annual: $-10,378/yr
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.51%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $109,091

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (22.6% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (718 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (803 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.