Big Bend Plan · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$298,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 107 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the Big Bend, a thoughtfully crafted floor plan that makes the most of its space. With up to 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 2 garage spaces; there is room for an expanding family to grow. Enter the home and step into the open-concept main living area consisting of a spacious Great Room, a dining area, and a gorgeous kitchen complete with a sleek cooktop and stainless steel vent hood, a large island for prepping, and a corner pantry to maximize space. Tucked towards the back of the home, the master suite offers maximum privacy and features a luxurious ensuite with double vanities, a separate water closet, a step-in shower, a large walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms and their shared full bathroom are privately located down the hall, offering comfort and seclusion for family members or guests. Near the entrance, the study can be converted into a fourth bedroom. Additional highlights of the Big Bend include a two-car garage with extra storage space and a covered backyard patio, perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or lively evenings. Highlights of this home Chef-inspired kitchen showcases a spacious island and generous pantry Master bedroom retreat features an elegant walk-in shower and dual vanities Covered patio extends outdoor lifestyle Personalized options include a cozy fireplace, built-in storage shelves, extended patio, and more The floorplan images provided are for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the exact layout, .. .

Key facts

• Master suite
• Gorgeous kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• MASTER SUITE
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $298,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,611.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-865 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (718 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (803 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,348 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.51%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,611
• List price: $298,990
• Delta: -23.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-116,965
• Equity at exit: $58,092

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-167,592
• Equity at exit: $33,686

Cash invested: $109,091 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,313 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,844/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-865

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,408

Max offer price $264,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-596	-5% $-730	+0% $-865	+5% $-999	+10% $-1,134
Rent	-10% $-1,048	-5% $-956	+0% $-865	+5% $-773	+10% $-682
Rate	-1.0pp $-669	-0.5pp $-766	base $-865	+0.5pp $-966	+1.0pp $-1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,403
• Closing costs: $11,688
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	15d	1	0.33mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	45d	1	1.18mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	45d	1	1.24mi
3833 Ranchers Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	45d	1	1.35mi
7516 Sierra de Oro Pl Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	15d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $298,990 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,990 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,990 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $298,990 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,990 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $298,990 Active 99 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $298,990 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,990 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,990 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $298,990 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $298,990 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $298,990 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,990 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,990 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $298,990 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-14
    price $298,990 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Step into the Big Bend, a thoughtfully crafted floor plan that makes the most of its space. With up to 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 2 garage spaces; there is room for an expanding family to grow. Enter the home and step into the open-concept main living area consisting of a spacious Great Room, a dining area, and a gorgeous kitchen complete with a sleek cooktop and stainless steel vent hood, a large island for prepping, and a corner pantry to maximize space. Tucked towards the back of the home, the master suite offers maximum privacy and features a luxurious ensuite with double vanities, a separate water closet, a step-in shower, a large walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms and their shared full bathroom are privately located down the hall, offering comfort and seclusion for family members or guests. Near the entrance, the study can be converted into a fourth bedroom. Additional highlights of the Big Bend include a two-car garage with extra storage space and a covered backyard patio, perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or lively evenings. Highlights of this home Chef-inspired kitchen showcases a spacious island and generous pantry Master bedroom retreat features an elegant walk-in shower and dual vanities Covered patio extends outdoor lifestyle Personalized options include a cozy fireplace, built-in storage shelves, extended patio, and more The floorplan images provided are for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the exact layout, .. .

17. 2026-03-06
    listed $292,990 Active 1487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1487 chars)

    Step into the Big Bend, a thoughtfully crafted floor plan that makes the most of its space. With up to 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 2 garage spaces; there is room for an expanding family to grow. Enter the home and step into the open-concept main living area consisting of a spacious Great Room, a dining area, and a gorgeous kitchen complete with a sleek cooktop and stainless steel vent hood, a large island for prepping, and a corner pantry to maximize space. Tucked towards the back of the home, the master suite offers maximum privacy and features a luxurious ensuite with double vanities, a separate water closet, a step-in shower, a large walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms and their shared full bathroom are privately located down the hall, offering comfort and seclusion for family members or guests. Near the entrance, the study can be converted into a fourth bedroom. Additional highlights of the Big Bend include a two-car garage with extra storage space and a covered backyard patio, perfect for enjoying quiet mornings or lively evenings. Highlights of this home Chef-inspired kitchen showcases a spacious island and generous pantry Master bedroom retreat features an elegant walk-in shower and dual vanities Covered patio extends outdoor lifestyle Personalized options include a cozy fireplace, built-in storage shelves, extended patio, and more The floorplan images provided are for illustrative purposes only and may not represent the exact layout, .. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,824
• − Property taxes: −$5,844
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − Depreciation: −$11,334
• Taxable loss: −$17,631
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,231
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-06 Listed $292,990 Zillow