13717 Gaff Rig Dr

Texas City, TX 77510

$285,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,377/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$475
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-217/mo
• Annual: $-2,598/yr
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $238k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?