13717 Gaff Rig Dr · Texas City, TX 77510

$277,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 7,618 sqft lot $149/sqft · 16% below area Est $331k · 16% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 13717 Gaff Rig Drive, a thoughtfully designed one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms featuring a desirable split floor plan. The chef-ready kitchen showcases granite countertops and a center island, opening seamlessly to the main living area, while a formal dining room provides a dedicated space for gatherings. Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring extends through the main living areas, bathrooms, and primary bedroom for a clean, modern look and easy maintenance. The primary suite features a spacious en-suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower and two walk-in closets. Both secondary bedrooms also include walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor relaxation on the covered patio with no back neighbors, offering privacy. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Located in the Lago Mar community featuring a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, playground, splash pad, pool, scenic trails, and golf cart-friendly streets. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Granite countertops
• Chef ready kitchen

Tags

• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS EN SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 316 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,763 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,906
• List price: $277,000
• Delta: -16.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14113 Baikal Manor Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-3%)	1mo	$303,990	$169	80
14008 Starboard Reach Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-11%)	0mo	$331,900	$201	73
3105 Sea Nettles Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,904 (+3%)	1mo	$328,900	$173	69
13802 Ballast Green Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-12%)	0mo	$340,460	$208	66
2206 Lierna Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,717 (-7%)	1mo	$290,900	$169	60
13204 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+4%)	0mo	$327,990	$171	59
14319 Freeboard Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,621 (-12%)	1mo	$295,900	$183	58
13302 Rosemary Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+6%)	0mo	$334,990	$170	57
2433 Mar Vista Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+9%)	1mo	$346,400	$171	52
13404 Diamond Reef Ln	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (-5%)	0mo	$285,000	$162	52
13337 Silver Egret Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,045 (+10%)	1mo	$264,000	$129	42
3102 Mariner Island Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,081 (+12%)	1mo	$323,990	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,515
• Equity at exit: $41,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-57,397
• Equity at exit: $23,950

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 164 active · 63 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.7 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $334,990 ($174/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 2% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,155/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,581

Max offer price $257,139

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-42	+0% $-137	+5% $-233	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-232	+0% $-137	+5% $-42	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-67	base $-137	+0.5pp $-209	+1.0pp $-282

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.16mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	42d	1	0.60mi
14403 Daniel Shores Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1825	$2,500	$1.37	0d	5	0.61mi
2600 Golden Palms Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0	2411	$3,200	$1.33	17d	1	0.80mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	93d	1	1.17mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.31mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	1.32mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	1.32mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	1.33mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	1.33mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	1.40mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail $125/mo · $1,500/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $277,000 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $277,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $277,000 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $277,000 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $277,000 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $277,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $277,000 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $277,000 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $277,000 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $277,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $277,000 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $277,000 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $277,000 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $277,000 Active 130 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $277,000 Active 129 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $277,000 Active 126 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $277,000 Active 125 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 124 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $285,000 Active 123 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 122 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 121 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $285,000 Active 120 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $285,000 Active 119 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 118 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $285,000 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 113 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 112 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 111 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 110 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 109 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $285,000 Active 108 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $285,000 Active 107 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $285,000 Active 106 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $285,000 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $285,000 Active 103 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $285,000 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $285,000 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $285,000 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $285,000 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 92 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$4,155
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$6,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,523
• After-tax cash flow: $-124/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a thoughtfully designed layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior brick to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Rental Replace outdoor furniture — Improves rental appeal and comfort for tenants ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938
• Household income: $96,284
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $299,900 HARMLS