13717 Gaff Rig Dr · Texas City, TX 77510

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 7,618 sqft lot $154/sqft · 14% below area Est $331k · 14% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 13717 Gaff Rig Drive, a thoughtfully designed one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms featuring a desirable split floor plan. The chef-ready kitchen showcases granite countertops and a center island, opening seamlessly to the main living area, while a formal dining room provides a dedicated space for gatherings. Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring extends through the main living areas, bathrooms, and primary bedroom for a clean, modern look and easy maintenance. The primary suite features a spacious en-suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower and two walk-in closets. Both secondary bedrooms also include walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor relaxation on the covered patio with no back neighbors, offering privacy. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Located in the Lago Mar community featuring a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, playground, splash pad, pool, scenic trails, and golf cart-friendly streets. Schedule your private tour today.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Granite countertops
• Chef ready kitchen

Tags

• CHEF READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS EN SUITE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-217 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,729 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,736
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -13.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3026 Banyan Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-0%)	1mo	$345,900	$187	93
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,738 (-6%)	1mo	$344,560	$198	73
13525 Bonita Island Way	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+2%)	1mo	$288,900	$152	68
13421 Diamond Reef Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+2%)	1mo	$284,900	$150	62
14117 Baikal Manor Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,063 (+11%)	1mo	$312,990	$152	61
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-13%)	1mo	$305,990	$189	58
2211 Manila Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,817 (-2%)	1mo	$295,000	$162	58
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+4%)	1mo	$360,990	$188	56
13714 Seneca Lake Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+9%)	1mo	$291,400	$144	50
13705 Sorico Bay Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-12%)	0mo	$268,400	$164	50
2921 Mariner Island Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,081 (+12%)	1mo	$375,990	$181	42
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (-12%)	1mo	$284,900	$174	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-59,859
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,423
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,651

Max offer price $253,670

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-20	-5% $-118	+0% $-217	+5% $-315	+10% $-413
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-310	+0% $-217	+5% $-123	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-144	base $-217	+0.5pp $-290	+1.0pp $-365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.16mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	45d	1	1.17mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	5d	2	1.31mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	1.32mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $285,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    listed $299,900 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Welcome to 13717 Gaff Rig Drive, a thoughtfully designed one-story home with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms featuring a desirable split floor plan. The chef-ready kitchen showcases granite countertops and a center island, opening seamlessly to the main living area, while a formal dining room provides a dedicated space for gatherings. Luxury Vinyl Plank flooring extends through the main living areas, bathrooms, and primary bedroom for a clean, modern look and easy maintenance. The primary suite features a spacious en-suite bathroom with dual vanities, a separate soaking tub and shower and two walk-in closets. Both secondary bedrooms also include walk-in closets. Enjoy outdoor relaxation on the covered patio with no back neighbors, offering privacy. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways. Located in the Lago Mar community featuring a 12-acre Crystal Lagoon, playground, splash pad, pool, scenic trails, and golf cart-friendly streets. Schedule your private tour today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,798
• After-tax cash flow: $-800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a thoughtfully designed layout and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior brick to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Rental Replace outdoor furniture — Improves rental appeal and comfort for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Rental Replace outdoor furniture — Improves rental appeal and comfort for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• City population: 49,936
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $299,900 HARMLS