11560 W Massingale Rd

Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$209,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,603/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-0/mo
• Annual: $-0/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($0/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 235 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $209k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.