11560 W Massingale Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $113/sqft · 16% below area Est $249k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Natural light
• Wide open space

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• WIDE OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picture Rocks Elementary (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #752 of 1,109 statewide, top 70%, 493 students, 67% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $139k; list at $209k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,710
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7821 N Sandario Rd	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (+3%)	1mo	$275,000	$145	66
11610 W Massingale Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,681 (-9%)	20mo	$275,000	$164	64
7790 N Prorodeo Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-12%)	12mo	$262,500	$162	58
11510 W Green Desert Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,750 (-5%)	23mo	$290,000	$166	53
7940 N Desert Quail Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (-13%)	13mo	$300,000	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-15,020
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,535
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,001/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $437	+0% $378	+5% $319	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $214	-5% $296	+0% $378	+5% $461	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $431	base $378	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $209,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    price $209,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

18. 2026-05-10
    price $204,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

19. 2026-05-09
    price $184,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

20. 2026-05-09
    price $204,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

21. 2026-05-09
    price $205,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

22. 2026-04-16
    price $209,000 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

23. 2026-04-15
    listed $199,000 Active 658-char remark

    Show marketing remark (658 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! Situated on a full 1-acre lot, this 1994 manufactured home offers endless potential for investors or buyers looking to create their ideal space. Featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light, the home provides a functional layout ready for your personal touch. With plenty of room to expand, add additional structures, or simply enjoy the wide-open space, this property delivers the flexibility that's hard to find. Whether you're looking for a rental investment, a renovation project, or a place to make your own, the possibilities here are truly limitless. Don't miss your chance to own land, space, and opportunity all in one!

24. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus $139,000 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    COUNTRY LIFE AWAITS-Starry Dark Skies-Mtn Views in the quaint Picture Rocks area -so close to Saguaro Ntl Park you feel you live in the preserve! Energy efficient 2x6 Framed Palm Harbor Hm.Tape&textured walls.Vaulted ceilings&dramatic windows.This hm is in such good condition that it feels NEW! Sturdy entry deck on front&cov deck on back! Full FLAT ACRE w/no washes! Field fenced yard in back. Nice looking neighboring hms.HIGH SPEED & CABLE AVAIL!

25. 2007-06-01
    soldstatus $139,000

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    COUNTRY LIFE AWAITS-Starry Dark Skies-Mtn Views in the quaint Picture Rocks area -so close to Saguaro Ntl Park you feel you live in the preserve! Energy efficient 2x6 Framed Palm Harbor Hm.Tape&textured walls.Vaulted ceilings&dramatic windows.This hm is in such good condition that it feels NEW! Sturdy entry deck on front&cov deck on back! Full FLAT ACRE w/no washes! Field fenced yard in back. Nice looking neighboring hms.HIGH SPEED & CABLE AVAIL!

26. 2007-04-20
    listed $144,900 466-char remark

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    COUNTRY LIFE AWAITS-Starry Dark Skies-Mtn Views in the quaint Picture Rocks area -so close to Saguaro Ntl Park you feel you live in the preserve! Energy efficient 2x6 Framed Palm Harbor Hm.Tape&textured walls.Vaulted ceilings&dramatic windows.This hm is in such good condition that it feels NEW! Sturdy entry deck on front&cov deck on back! Full FLAT ACRE w/no washes! Field fenced yard in back. Nice looking neighboring hms.HIGH SPEED & CABLE AVAIL!

27. 2007-04-20
    historical

    Show marketing remark (466 chars)

    COUNTRY LIFE AWAITS-Starry Dark Skies-Mtn Views in the quaint Picture Rocks area -so close to Saguaro Ntl Park you feel you live in the preserve! Energy efficient 2x6 Framed Palm Harbor Hm.Tape&textured walls.Vaulted ceilings&dramatic windows.This hm is in such good condition that it feels NEW! Sturdy entry deck on front&cov deck on back! Full FLAT ACRE w/no washes! Field fenced yard in back. Nice looking neighboring hms.HIGH SPEED & CABLE AVAIL!

28. 2007-01-26
    listed $144,900
29. 2007-01-26
    historical
30. 2006-10-24
    listed $157,900
31. 2002-08-08
    soldstatus $86,000
32. 2002-08-08
    soldstatus $86,000
33. 2002-05-28
    listed $84,500
34. 2000-06-14
    soldstatus $71,087
35. 1994-11-01
    soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,001 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,379 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$378/yr (+$31/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,001
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,999
• − Management: −$1,999
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable income: $1,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$277
• After-tax cash flow: $4,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $209,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $204,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $184,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $204,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $205,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $209,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-15 Listed $199,000 MLSSAZ
• 2007-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-01 Sold (MLS) $139,000 MLSSAZ
• 2007-04-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-04-20 Listed $144,900 MLSSAZ
• 2007-01-26 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2007-01-26 Listed $144,900 MLSSAZ
• 2006-10-24 Listed $157,900 MLSSAZ
• 2002-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 2002-08-08 Sold (MLS) $86,000 MLSSAZ
• 2002-05-28 Listed $84,500 MLSSAZ
• 2000-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $71,087 Public Records
• 1994-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,001 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.