221 Atwater St

Yanceyville, NC 27379

$199,900D-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,348/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,896/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.6% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oakwood Elementary (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 333 students, 99% FRL); N L Dillard Middle (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #360 of 475 statewide, top 77%, 500 students, 71% FRL); Bartlett Yancey High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #393 of 535 statewide, top 75%, 679 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 61% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $200k implies a 566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Yanceyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.