221 Atwater St · Yanceyville, NC 27379

$199,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1956 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly renovated beautiful home. This home has a new metal roof, nice laminate and hardwood floors Throughout. Comes with a new oven and refrigerator. New second bath adds the room your family needs. Located in the heart of Yanceyville, close to BYHS and convenient to everything downtown. A must see!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New second bath
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW SECOND BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-story house; Stick/site-built construction; Existing structure; Built in 1956; Living room fireplace
• Construction: Brick construction; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: City lot; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary on main
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; Attic access only; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.6% in Yanceyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caswell County Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #146 of 178 in NC (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Caswell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Caswell County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $200k implies a 566% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,806 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.39%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,136
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Hooper Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,360 (-9%)	4mo	$98,000	$72	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $44,500
• Equity at exit: $122,393

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $139,479
• Equity at exit: $219,182

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27379

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,096/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,548

Max offer price $171,991

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-101	+0% $-158	+5% $-215	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-211	+0% $-158	+5% $-105	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-107	base $-158	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 97 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 96 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $189,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Freshly renovated beautiful home. This home has a new metal roof, nice laminate and hardwood floors Throughout. Comes with a new oven and refrigerator. New second bath adds the room your family needs. Located in the heart of Yanceyville, close to BYHS and convenient to everything downtown. A must see!

19. 2026-02-24
    listed $199,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Freshly renovated beautiful home. This home has a new metal roof, nice laminate and hardwood floors Throughout. Comes with a new oven and refrigerator. New second bath adds the room your family needs. Located in the heart of Yanceyville, close to BYHS and convenient to everything downtown. A must see!

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $199,900 Active
21. 2024-09-16
    price $149,900
22. 2024-09-16
    price $149,900
23. 2024-09-03
    price $169,500
24. 2024-08-01
    price $174,900
25. 2024-08-01
    price $174,900
26. 2024-07-01
    price $179,900
27. 2024-07-01
    price $179,900
28. 2024-04-22
    listed $189,900 Active
29. 2013-09-27
    soldstatus $30,000
30. 2012-12-19
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,096 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$543/yr (+$45/mo · 49.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,096
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,294
• − Management: −$1,294
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,520
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caswell County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700660
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,172
• Composite: 25.44/100
• National rank: #7452
• State rank: #146 of 178 in NC

Livability — Yanceyville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #9189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yanceyville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 4,143

Population outlook (Caswell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,389 people
• By 2030: 20,297 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 17,848 · -16.6%
• By 2050: 15,578 · -27.2%
• By 2075: 11,939 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 8,930 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 41% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Caswell

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.6) · D 37.4% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: 3.1pp · 2024: -24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.6 2020: R+18.5 2016: R+11.5 2012: R+2.7 2008: D+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.74%
• Current HPI: 210.5496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+444.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $189,900 DRRAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $199,900 DRRAR
• 2026-02-23 Listed $199,900 Triad MLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $149,900 DRRAR
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $149,900 Triad MLS
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $169,500 DRRAR
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $174,900 Triad MLS
• 2024-08-01 Price Changed $174,900 DRRAR
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $179,900 DRRAR
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $179,900 Triad MLS
• 2024-04-22 Listed $189,900 DRRAR
• 2013-09-27 Sold (MLS) $30,000 DRRAR
• 2012-12-19 Listed $34,900 DRRAR

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,096 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.