270 Skate Creek Rd N

Ashford, WA 98304

$289,999C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · Built 1965 · Other · Active · 275 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,688/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$409
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $194/mo
• Annual: $2,325/yr
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#543 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Eatonville School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #116 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $290k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.