270 Skate Creek Rd N · Ashford, WA 98304

$289,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 876 sqft · Other public records · 275 Days on market

Built 1965 0.41 ac lot $331/sqft · 36% below area Est $452k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Private Wooded Retreat! Country Cabin on Shy Half Acre Just 5 min to Mt Rainier Park Entrance! No CCRS or HOA! New Electrical Panel & New Mast. Come to Ski, Fish, Hike, & Relax in the Great PNW! New 3 Bd Septic, Metal Roof, SS Applcs, Pellet Stove, Main Flr Primary, Upstairs Bonus Rm, & Lrg Covered "Party" Deck! New Septic, Power, Internet, 2 Lg H2O Holding Tanks; 1200 & 50 Gal On-Site! Indoor Facilities - Tiled Shower, Hot & Cold H2O, Fir Floor & Toilet! Surrounded by Nice New Build Homes! Just 1 Hr to Tacoma, Minutes to the Elbe Scenic Train, & Nearby Alder Lake! Water is Delivered to the Property or Well Needed. Bring the RVs & Toys!

Key facts

• Country cabin
• Hot and cold h2o
• Fir floor

Tags

• WOODED RETREAT
• COUNTRY CABIN
• LRG COVERED PARTY DECK
• TILED SHOWER
• HOT AND COLD H2O
• FIR FLOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#543 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A-, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Eatonville School District (rural): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #116 of 291 in WA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $290k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $255,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $451,644
• List price: $289,999
• Delta: -35.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.02% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $32,476
• Equity at exit: $114,660

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $117,523
• Equity at exit: $165,325

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98304

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,463/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $289,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,999 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,999 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,999 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,999 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,999 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,999 Active 266 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,999 Active 265 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,999 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,999 Active 261 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,999 Active 260 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,999 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,999 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,999 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-03-29
    price $289,999
15. 2025-12-03
    status Active
16. 2025-11-24
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
17. 2025-09-06
    listed $295,000 Active
18. 2018-07-23
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold
19. 2018-07-23
    soldstatus $105,000
20. 2018-07-23
    status Pending
21. 2018-06-28
    status Pending Feasibility
22. 2018-06-10
    price $114,995
23. 2018-04-10
    listed $118,000 Active
24. 2005-11-28
    soldstatus $38,000
25. 2005-03-16
    listed $42,000
26. 2003-03-26
    soldstatus $32,000
27. 2003-03-26
    soldstatus $32,000
28. 2003-01-31
    listed $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,463 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,463 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥84°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$3,463
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,581
• − Management: −$2,581
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$2,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$598
• After-tax cash flow: $2,923/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eatonville School District
• NCES district ID: 5302370
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,370
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #4971
• State rank: #116 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ashford

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #543
• US rank: #22815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 867

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Italian 7% English 6%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.02%
• Current HPI: 289.5128
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+694.5% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $289,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed $295,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-23 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-10 Price Changed $114,995 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-10 Listed $118,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-28 Sold (MLS) $38,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-16 Listed $42,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-26 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-01-31 Listed $36,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,463 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.