3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built 1961
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,218/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,521
Tax + insurance
−$473
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$466
Net cashflow
$-242/mo
Annual
$-2,902/yr
Cap rate
5.29%
Cash-on-cash
-3.57%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$81,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (14.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (23.5% below list).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $222k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Willow Crest Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 284 students, 100% FRL); Romig Middle School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #22 of 36 statewide, top 63%, 720 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y2GGY1C5C49J7E
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29