194 Adams St

Newton, MA 02458

$2,495,000D

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,134 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $16,911/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax + insurance: −$1,954
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,551
• Net cashflow: $-1,678/mo
• Annual: $-20,134/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $698,600

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $2.50M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.20M (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.69M (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.42M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.69M (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in MA, #746 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Newton (urban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #27 of 302 in MA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 29 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.4% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $16,911/mo this rent would consume 132% of the median local household income ($154k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.