194 Adams St · Newton, MA 02458

$2,495,000

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,134 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1890 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

194 Adams Street presents a compelling buy-and-build development opportunity in the heart of Nonantum, one of Newton’s most sought-after neighborhoods. This fully cleared site will be SOLD WITH A BUILDING PERMIT for five residential units, secured through a special permit, offering a streamlined path to construction and reduced entitlement risk. Proposed plans include three 3-bed, 3-bath townhomes ranging from 1,965–1,983 square feet, along with two 2-bed, 2-bath flats of approximately 904 square feet each, all with direct elevator access from the garage. Located between Washington and Watertown Streets, the property offers convenient access to the Mass Pike (east to downtown Boston, west to Route 95/128), Newton Corner, and the MBTA commuter rail. This accessible location supports strong rental and resale potential near retail, dining, and major employment hubs. Seller will consider offers with buyer concessions.

Key facts

• Accessible location
• Building permit
• 6,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY
• BUILDING PERMIT
• DIRECT ELEVATOR ACCESS
• ACCESSIBLE LOCATION
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL
• STRONG RESALE POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.17M (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.67M (33.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.4% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#17 in MA, #746 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Newton (urban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #27 of 302 in MA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 29 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,670 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (2,611 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $16,718/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($154k/yr) (locally 265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $37k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.42M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,671,800 (33.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,460,444
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17-19 Crafts St	0.28mi	7/4.0 (-1)	2,684 (-14%)	1mo	$1,250,000	$466	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.49% appreciation · 7.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-285,928
• Equity at exit: $543,628

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $78,968
• Equity at exit: $522,270

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Massachusetts: 20 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Cambridge / Boston historically rent-controlled (preempted 1994 but consideration ongoing); strong tenant protections; court backlogs.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 02458

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 56.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$914 /mo · $10,967/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,511
• Net cashflow: $-1,830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,035

Max offer price $2,171,664

Occupancy floor —

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	3	$11,073
▸ 2× units	2	2	$5,646
Total (5 units)			$16,718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,495,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,495,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $2,495,000 New 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    194 Adams Street presents a compelling buy-and-build development opportunity in the heart of Nonantum, one of Newton’s most sought-after neighborhoods. This fully cleared site will be SOLD WITH A BUILDING PERMIT for five residential units, secured through a special permit, offering a streamlined path to construction and reduced entitlement risk. Proposed plans include three 3-bed, 3-bath townhomes ranging from 1,965–1,983 square feet, along with two 2-bed, 2-bath flats of approximately 904 square feet each, all with direct elevator access from the garage. Located between Washington and Watertown Streets, the property offers convenient access to the Mass Pike (east to downtown Boston, west to Route 95/128), Newton Corner, and the MBTA commuter rail. This accessible location supports strong rental and resale potential near retail, dining, and major employment hubs. Seller will consider offers with buyer concessions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,967 · $914/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,828 · $1,736/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,861/yr (+$822/mo · 89.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $200,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$10,967
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,049
• − Management: −$16,049
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable loss: −$67,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,144
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton
• NCES district ID: 2508610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $118,822
• Composite: 64.67/100
• National rank: #525
• State rank: #27 of 302 in MA

Livability — Newton

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #746

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, MA
• County: Middlesex County · 1,437,704 people
• City population: 54,110
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• Population (ZIP): 13,050
• Household income: $153,520
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,740,269 people
• By 2030: 1,817,187 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 1,963,195 · +12.8%
• By 2050: 2,087,461 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 2,344,036 · +34.7%
• By 2100: 2,383,776 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Asian 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Estonian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Chinese 8% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.5) · D 68.5% · R 29.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.3pp toward D · 2008: 30.1pp · 2024: 39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.5 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+38.1 2012: D+26.9 2008: D+30.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.49%
• Current HPI: 270.2865
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.26%
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	3	$17B
▸Insurance	2	$84B
▸Retail	2	$76B
▸Life Sciences	1	$43B
▸Energy Technology	1	$31B
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $2,495,000 MLS PIN

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,967 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.