303 Juniper

New Home, TX 79383

$674,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,924 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 278 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,535
• Tax + insurance: −$1,123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-629/mo
• Annual: $-7,546/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $188,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $674k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $583k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($593k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $510k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.