303 Juniper · New Home, TX 79383

$674,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 278 Days on market

Built 2025 1.45 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning 4 Bedroom + Flex Space, 3 Bath home with 3 Car garage home in New Home District! You will love this thoughtfully designed floor plan with open concept living with private retreats, perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. Spacious Master Suite with bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, walk in shower, and oversized walk in closet. The perfect Kitchen with Large walk-in pantry, Oversized Island and beautiful color scheme. Tons of Natural Light, Extra storage, Flex Space, Mudroom, Covered Patios, Fencing included, Sprinkler System, Hydro-mulch Included!!

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $674k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-629 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $583k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $510k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 278 days — a 12% lower offer ($593k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $510,000 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 278 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $41,218
• Equity at exit: $303,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $203,074
• Equity at exit: $467,051

Cash invested: $188,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79383

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,535
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$842 /mo · $10,110/yr
• Insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-629

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,896

Max offer price $583,003

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-163	-5% $-396	+0% $-629	+5% $-862	+10% $-1,095
Rent	-10% $-1,032	-5% $-830	+0% $-629	+5% $-427	+10% $-226
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-457	base $-629	+0.5pp $-804	+1.0pp $-981

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $168,500
• Closing costs: $20,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Juniper St New Home, TX	4.0	3.0	2594	$5,100	$1.97	15d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $674,000 Active 278 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $674,000 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $674,000 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $674,000 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $674,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $674,000 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $674,000 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $674,000 Active 266 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $674,000 Active 265 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $674,000 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $674,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $674,000 Active 260 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $674,000 Active 259 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $674,000 Active 258 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $674,000 Active 257 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $674,000 Active 256 DOM
17. 2025-11-13
    price $674,000 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Stunning 4 Bedroom + Flex Space, 3 Bath home with 3 Car garage home in New Home District! You will love this thoughtfully designed floor plan with open concept living with private retreats, perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. Spacious Master Suite with bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, walk in shower, and oversized walk in closet. The perfect Kitchen with Large walk-in pantry, Oversized Island and beautiful color scheme. Tons of Natural Light, Extra storage, Flex Space, Mudroom, Covered Patios, Fencing included, Sprinkler System, Hydro-mulch Included!!

18. 2025-09-16
    listed $695,912 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    Stunning 4 Bedroom + Flex Space, 3 Bath home with 3 Car garage home in New Home District! You will love this thoughtfully designed floor plan with open concept living with private retreats, perfect for both entertaining and everyday comfort. Spacious Master Suite with bath, dual vanities, soaking tub, walk in shower, and oversized walk in closet. The perfect Kitchen with Large walk-in pantry, Oversized Island and beautiful color scheme. Tons of Natural Light, Extra storage, Flex Space, Mudroom, Covered Patios, Fencing included, Sprinkler System, Hydro-mulch Included!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,754
• − Property taxes: −$10,110
• − Insurance: −$3,370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,896
• − Management: −$4,896
• − Depreciation: −$19,607
• Taxable loss: −$19,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 47

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 32% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $674,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $695,912 LARMLS