37 Hill Rd

Walker Valley, NY 12566

$349,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,284 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 189 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$685
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-650/mo
• Annual: $-7,800/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (32.4% below list).
• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $234k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#517 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 29% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+38 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pine Bush Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 13860% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $349k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.8% in Walker Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.