37 Hill Rd · Walker Valley, NY 12566

$349,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1966 1.33 ac lot $153/sqft · 39% below area Est $576k · 39% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your private retreat at 37 Hill Road — nestled on a serene 1.33-acre wooded lot, this home offers a rare combination of seclusion and opportunity. Built in 1966, the ranch-style residence spans approximately 2,284 sq ft and features two bedrooms and two full baths — a solid canvas waiting for your personal vision. Step inside and you’ll be greeted by large windows that flood the main level with natural light and frame tranquil forest views. The layout is versatile, with an eat-in kitchen, first-floor living, and the added bonus of a spiral staircase leading to a full, unfinished basement—prime space for expansion or customization. Outside you’ll find a peaceful setting — mature trees, ample privacy and a circular driveway that makes arrival effortless. Imagine evenings on a screened porch listening to the rustle of leaves and watching nature just outside your door. Located in the celebrated Pine Bush Central School District, the property offers both countryside tranquility and convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, a full-time home, or a value-driven restoration project with great upside, this property stands out. Bring your creativity and love of nature — 37 Hill Road is a hidden gem with great bones and tremendous potential. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it uniquely yours.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Wooded lot
• Screened porch

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SPIRAL STAIRCASE
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• SCREENED PORCH
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-650 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 1.8% in Walker Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#517 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 13860% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $172k; list at $349k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,181 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $576,359
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -39.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $103,419
• Equity at exit: $266,154

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $331,047
• Equity at exit: $529,277

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,473/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,184

Max offer price $234,181

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-452	-5% $-551	+0% $-650	+5% $-749	+10% $-848
Rent	-10% $-836	-5% $-743	+0% $-650	+5% $-557	+10% $-463
Rate	-1.0pp $-474	-0.5pp $-561	base $-650	+0.5pp $-740	+1.0pp $-832

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Active 1392-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1392 chars)

   Welcome to your private retreat at 37 Hill Road — nestled on a serene 1.33-acre wooded lot, this home offers a rare combination of seclusion and opportunity. Built in 1966, the ranch-style residence spans approximately 2,284 sq ft and features two bedrooms and two full baths — a solid canvas waiting for your personal vision. Step inside and you’ll be greeted by large windows that flood the main level with natural light and frame tranquil forest views. The layout is versatile, with an eat-in kitchen, first-floor living, and the added bonus of a spiral staircase leading to a full, unfinished basement—prime space for expansion or customization. Outside you’ll find a peaceful setting — mature trees, ample privacy and a circular driveway that makes arrival effortless. Imagine evenings on a screened porch listening to the rustle of leaves and watching nature just outside your door. Located in the celebrated Pine Bush Central School District, the property offers both countryside tranquility and convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, a full-time home, or a value-driven restoration project with great upside, this property stands out. Bring your creativity and love of nature — 37 Hill Road is a hidden gem with great bones and tremendous potential. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it uniquely yours.

2. 2026-04-14
   historical $2,500
3. 2026-04-02
   listed $2,500
4. 2025-11-28
   price $349,000 1392-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1392 chars)

   Welcome to your private retreat at 37 Hill Road — nestled on a serene 1.33-acre wooded lot, this home offers a rare combination of seclusion and opportunity. Built in 1966, the ranch-style residence spans approximately 2,284 sq ft and features two bedrooms and two full baths — a solid canvas waiting for your personal vision. Step inside and you’ll be greeted by large windows that flood the main level with natural light and frame tranquil forest views. The layout is versatile, with an eat-in kitchen, first-floor living, and the added bonus of a spiral staircase leading to a full, unfinished basement—prime space for expansion or customization. Outside you’ll find a peaceful setting — mature trees, ample privacy and a circular driveway that makes arrival effortless. Imagine evenings on a screened porch listening to the rustle of leaves and watching nature just outside your door. Located in the celebrated Pine Bush Central School District, the property offers both countryside tranquility and convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, a full-time home, or a value-driven restoration project with great upside, this property stands out. Bring your creativity and love of nature — 37 Hill Road is a hidden gem with great bones and tremendous potential. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it uniquely yours.

5. 2025-11-18
   price $369,000 1392-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1392 chars)

   Welcome to your private retreat at 37 Hill Road — nestled on a serene 1.33-acre wooded lot, this home offers a rare combination of seclusion and opportunity. Built in 1966, the ranch-style residence spans approximately 2,284 sq ft and features two bedrooms and two full baths — a solid canvas waiting for your personal vision. Step inside and you’ll be greeted by large windows that flood the main level with natural light and frame tranquil forest views. The layout is versatile, with an eat-in kitchen, first-floor living, and the added bonus of a spiral staircase leading to a full, unfinished basement—prime space for expansion or customization. Outside you’ll find a peaceful setting — mature trees, ample privacy and a circular driveway that makes arrival effortless. Imagine evenings on a screened porch listening to the rustle of leaves and watching nature just outside your door. Located in the celebrated Pine Bush Central School District, the property offers both countryside tranquility and convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, a full-time home, or a value-driven restoration project with great upside, this property stands out. Bring your creativity and love of nature — 37 Hill Road is a hidden gem with great bones and tremendous potential. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it uniquely yours.

6. 2025-11-01
   listed $387,000 Active 1392-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1392 chars)

   Welcome to your private retreat at 37 Hill Road — nestled on a serene 1.33-acre wooded lot, this home offers a rare combination of seclusion and opportunity. Built in 1966, the ranch-style residence spans approximately 2,284 sq ft and features two bedrooms and two full baths — a solid canvas waiting for your personal vision. Step inside and you’ll be greeted by large windows that flood the main level with natural light and frame tranquil forest views. The layout is versatile, with an eat-in kitchen, first-floor living, and the added bonus of a spiral staircase leading to a full, unfinished basement—prime space for expansion or customization. Outside you’ll find a peaceful setting — mature trees, ample privacy and a circular driveway that makes arrival effortless. Imagine evenings on a screened porch listening to the rustle of leaves and watching nature just outside your door. Located in the celebrated Pine Bush Central School District, the property offers both countryside tranquility and convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend escape, a full-time home, or a value-driven restoration project with great upside, this property stands out. Bring your creativity and love of nature — 37 Hill Road is a hidden gem with great bones and tremendous potential. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it uniquely yours.

7. 2021-04-19
   soldstatus $172,000
8. 2021-03-30
   soldstatus $172,000 Closed 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

9. 2021-03-05
   status Pending 733-char remark

   Show marketing remark (733 chars)

   HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

10. 2021-02-08
    historical 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

11. 2021-01-23
    price $189,999 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

12. 2020-12-18
    listed $199,999 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

13. 2020-12-04
    historical $199,999 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    HANDYMAN SPECIAL!! This unique home is nestled in the woods, offering the ultimate in privacy. Come see this charming 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. With a little elbow grease and some TLC, this gem will shine again. Recent work includes very large windows, allowing plenty of natural light, and affording picturesque views of the property. Ceramic tile floor throughout most of the main floor. Large screened in porch is the perfect place to relax and watch the wildlife. Circular driveway. Spiral staircase heads to the basement. Basement is currently unfinished, but would double your square footage if you decided to finish it. Pine Bush schools!! The hard work is done, time to finish this home and make it your own personal retreat.

14. 2016-08-23
    soldstatus $150,000
15. 2016-08-03
    soldstatus $150,000
16. 2016-08-03
    soldstatus $150,000
17. 2016-04-26
    historical
18. 2015-05-18
    listed $150,000
19. 2015-05-18
    listed $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,473 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,473 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$6,473
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,266
• − Management: −$2,266
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$14,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,410/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walker Valley

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #9174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-98.3% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Rental Removed $2,500 ONEKEY
• 2026-04-02 Listed for Rent $2,500 ONEKEY
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Listed $387,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-30 Sold (MLS) $172,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-23 Price Changed $189,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-18 Listed $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Coming Soon $199,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-03 Sold (MLS) $150,000 HGMLS
• 2016-08-03 Sold (MLS) $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-26 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2015-05-18 Listed $150,000 HGMLS
• 2015-05-18 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,473 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.