2302 E Mistletoe Ave

Victoria, TX 77901

$90,200B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,122 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$473
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,703/yr
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.62%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $25,256

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $624 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $98k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $90k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.