2302 E Mistletoe Ave · Victoria, TX 77901

$90,200

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 1958 9,845 sqft lot $43/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

Key facts

• Den with fireplace
• Galley style kitchen
• 9,845 sq ft lot

Tags

• LIVING DINING KITCHEN COMBO
• DEN WITH FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED BREAKFAST AREA
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $624 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $98k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $90k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,376 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.62%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,124
• List price: $90,200
• Delta: -54.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2101 E Mistletoe Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,817 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$124	69
3403 Redwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,949 (-8%)	8mo	$172,000	$88	66
2602 Miori Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,398 (+13%)	7mo	$240,000	$100	60
2602 College Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,022 (-5%)	3mo	$187,500	$93	56
3402 Erwin Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (-4%)	8mo	$225,000	$110	55
2106 College Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,950 (-8%)	8mo	$283,000	$145	52
106 Giacomo Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,906 (-10%)	2mo	$357,500	$188	52
1901 Bon Aire Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,951 (-8%)	7mo	$195,000	$100	50
2010 Seguin Ave	0.71mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,216 (+4%)	1mo	$374,900	$169	49
105 Giacomo	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,920 (-10%)	7mo	$344,900	$180	49
1801 College Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,900 (-10%)	1mo	$292,900	$154	44
2704 E Loma Vista Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,358 (+11%)	0mo	$328,500	$139	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,080
• Equity at exit: $13,449

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $20,984
• Equity at exit: $7,799

Cash invested: $25,256 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$473
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,367/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,001

Max offer price $90,200

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $443	-5% $417	+0% $392	+5% $366	+10% $341
Rent	-10% $274	-5% $333	+0% $392	+5% $451	+10% $510
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $415	base $392	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,550
• Closing costs: $2,706
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1709 Navidad St Victoria, TX	4.0	1.0	1457	$1,595	$1.09	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $90,200 Pending 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,200 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $90,200 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 186 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 185 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 180 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 179 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 169 DOM
17. 2026-03-14
    price $145,000 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

18. 2026-03-14
    price $145,000 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

19. 2026-03-03
    price $157,920 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

20. 2026-03-03
    price $157,920 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

21. 2026-01-28
    price $172,960 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

22. 2026-01-28
    price $172,960 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

23. 2025-12-11
    listed $188,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

24. 2025-12-11
    listed $188,000 Active 359-char remark

    Show marketing remark (359 chars)

    Older custom 3 bedroom, 2 bath home close to schools and commute. Features include living dining kitchen combo, den with fireplace with attached breakfast area and galley style kitchen and a 1 car garage. This home is now being offered in an online sales auction event on ServiceLink beginning 4-20-26. Visit the site for terms and conditions that will apply.

25. 2022-07-12
    soldstatus
26. 2022-06-05
    status Pending
27. 2022-05-31
    listed $184,900 Active
28. 2017-05-09
    soldstatus
29. 2011-08-15
    soldstatus $44,000
30. 2011-02-28
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,367 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,367 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,053
• − Property taxes: −$3,367
• − Insurance: −$451
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,438
• − Management: −$1,438
• − Depreciation: −$2,624
• Taxable income: $3,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$864
• After-tax cash flow: $3,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $145,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $157,920 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $157,920 CTXMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $172,960 NTREIS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $172,960 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $188,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $188,000 NTREIS
• 2022-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-05 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2022-05-31 Listed $184,900 CTXMLS
• 2017-05-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-08-15 Sold (MLS) $44,000 CTXMLS
• 2011-02-28 Listed $49,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,367 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.