4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,612 sqft ·
Built 1915
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 63 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,783/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,704
Tax + insurance
−$404
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$584
Net cashflow
$90/mo
Annual
$1,084/yr
Cap rate
6.63%
Cash-on-cash
1.19%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$91,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (14.4% below list).
It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $278k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $23k; list at $325k implies a 1313% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,783/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y2QEMF1K9APZB8
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29