2605 S Tomahawk Rd Lot 126

Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$124,900C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $576/mo
• Annual: $6,917/yr
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.78%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.1% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.