2605 S Tomahawk Rd Lot 126 · Apache Junction, AZ 85119

$124,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1978 Good condition $96/sqft · 65% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? NO BAD DAYS IN PARADISE ?? 2605 S. Tomahawk Rd #126 Apache Junction, AZ 85119 $124,900 2 Bedrooms | 2 Bathrooms | 1,248 Sq. Ft. 530 Sq. Ft. Covered Patio | 530 Sq. Ft. Covered Carport Welcome to & quot; No Bad Days in Paradise, & quot; one of the most unique and beautifully updated homes in Raindance Resort, a premier 55+ active adult community in Apache Junction, Arizona. From the moment you arrive, you& apos; ll notice the difference. This home features a true front entrance, tropical landscaping, mature palm trees, custom lighting, artificial turf, and a private backyard oasis designed for Arizona living.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Modern finishes
• Updated flooring

Tags

• TROPICAL LANDSCAPING
• MATURE PALM TREES
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.1% in Apache Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#70 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Apache Junction Unified District (4443) (suburban): math 15% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #195 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Desert Vista Elementary School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 536 students, 50% FRL); Cactus Canyon Junior High (math 14% / reading 19%, grade F, #151 of 218 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 50% FRL); Apache Junction High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 999 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.78%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,913
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -65.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2181 E 27th Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,219 (-6%)	6mo	$334,900	$275	68
2301 E Pima Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,218 (-6%)	3mo	$340,000	$279	67
2771 S Conestoga Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (-4%)	5mo	$339,999	$273	66
1815 S Hayley Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,225 (-6%)	3mo	$335,000	$273	66
2264 S Belaire Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+1%)	6mo	$385,000	$294	63
704 E Peppertree Ave	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,321 (+2%)	0mo	$336,000	$254	62
2328 E Greenlee Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,411 (+9%)	4mo	$365,000	$259	58
1920 E 18th Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (-9%)	2mo	$325,000	$276	54
3489 S Bowman Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (+7%)	2mo	$340,000	$245	52
2157 E 35th Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (-8%)	2mo	$350,000	$295	50
690 E Osage Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,217 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$296	49
2303 E 35th Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,402 (+8%)	3mo	$260,000	$185	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,918
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $49,199
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.8 mo (36%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $355,000 ($264/sqft)
• Median days on market: 28 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85119

• Home prices YoY: -33.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,874/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $576

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $663	-5% $620	+0% $576	+5% $533	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $504	+0% $576	+5% $648	+10% $720
Rate	-1.0pp $639	-0.5pp $608	base $576	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 E 26th Ln Unit 2 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,550	$1.34	48d	1	0.17mi
3249 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1615	$1,895	$1.17	38d	1	0.49mi
3277 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,770	$1.10	52d	1	0.50mi
3405 S Tomahawk Rd Lot 15 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,499	$1.23	36d	1	0.51mi
2247 S Arizona Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,895	$1.62	17d	1	0.54mi
3283 S Bowman Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$1,895	$1.37	38d	1	0.55mi
878 E Graham Ln Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	938	$1,595	$1.70	23d	1	0.58mi
3448 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,848	$1.56	60d	1	0.59mi
3478 S Chaparral Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	54d	1	0.61mi
3333 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,900	$2.09	73d	1	0.61mi
3454 S Bowman Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1615	$1,890	$1.17	9d	1	0.63mi
700 E Quail Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,699	$1.45	27d	1	0.68mi
2327 E 35th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,781	$1.09	22d	1	0.73mi
2962 E Mohave Ln Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,145	$1.53	18d	1	0.75mi
3705 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	73d	1	0.82mi
705 E Kachina Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,655	$1.90	54d	1	0.84mi
3879 S Conestoga Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,910	$1.21	73d	1	0.91mi
603 E Hondo Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,750	$1.36	27d	1	0.93mi
1297 E Broadway Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,924	$2.02	10d	25	1.03mi
975 S Royal Palm Rd Apache Junction, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	2d	12	1.14mi
520 E Desert Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,881	$1.37	30d	1	1.18mi
25 W 16th Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,699	$1.50	2d	1	1.26mi
3301 S Goldfield Rd Unit 4077 Apache Junction, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$1,850	$1.20	73d	1	1.28mi
2681 E Boulder Ave Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	3.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	73d	1	1.29mi
4692 S Siphon Draw Rd Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.5	1712	$2,345	$1.37	7d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $124,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $124,900 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $124,900 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $124,900 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $124,900 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $124,900 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,900 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $124,900 Active 26 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $124,900 Active 25 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $124,900 Active 24 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $124,900 Active 23 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $124,900 Active 22 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $124,900 Active 21 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $124,900 Active 19 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 17 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,900 Active 16 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,900 Active 15 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 14 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 13 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 12 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 11 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $124,900 Active 10 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $124,900 Active 9 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,900 Active 8 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $124,900 Active 7 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $124,900 Active 4 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    remarks 683-char remark
41. 2026-06-21
    listed $124,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥111°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,867
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,874
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $5,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,258
• After-tax cash flow: $5,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,480–$19,440 screening

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 17/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Desert Vista Elementary School F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 Middle Cactus Canyon Junior High F AZ #151/218 Nat'l #12,406/14,009 High Apache Junction High School F AZ #267/381 Nat'l #15,534/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Apache Junction Unified District (4443)
• NCES district ID: 0400790
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,930
• Composite: 15.34/100
• National rank: #9325
• State rank: #195 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Apache Junction

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #70
• US rank: #11242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pinal County · 437,574 people
• City population: 56,611
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,420
• Household income: $71,585
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.19%
• Current HPI: 274.3808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.57%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $124,900 Fizber.com