2204 N Forest Rd

University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$267,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 9 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$887
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-526/mo
• Annual: $-6,314/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $75,012

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (16.5% below list).
• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.