2204 N Forest Rd · University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$267,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1964 1.08 ac lot $226/sqft · 17% below area Est $323k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on just over an acre backing to Ellicott Creek, this 3-bedroom Ranch offers easy, single-level living w/ a serene backyard setting surrounded by lush green space and mature trees. The main living space is inviting and open, featuring a living room/dining combination that flows into the eat-in kitchen w/ granite countertops, tile backsplash and a full suite of appliances included. A small front foyer and closet create a defined entry before stepping into the main living area. Hardwood flooring extends through all three bedrooms. The smallest bedroom is currently being used as first-floor laundry and could easily be converted back, if desired. Additional features include a full basement w

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Tile backsplash
• Mature trees

Tags

• ACRE BACKING TO ELLICOTT CREEK
• SERENE BACKYARD SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• FULL SUITE OF APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage door opener; Garage storage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction
• Construction: Brick and composite siding; Copper plumbing; Architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Patio; River access to Ellicott Creek; Stream on property; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Living/dining room; Storage; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,952 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.05%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,843
• List price: $267,900
• Delta: -17.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Stahl Rd	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,267 (+7%)	15mo	$170,000	$134	69
425 Robin Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,270 (+7%)	21mo	$265,000	$209	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,006
• Equity at exit: $39,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-84,896
• Equity at exit: $23,163

Cash invested: $75,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,784/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,902

Max offer price $174,952

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,975
• Closing costs: $8,037
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2635 N Forest Rd Unit Type A Getzville, NY	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,199	$1.93	1d	1	0.79mi
2635 N Forest Rd Getzville, NY	3.0	2.0	1340	$2,395	$1.79	10d	1	0.79mi
2675 Millersport Hwy Getzville, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,130	$1.76	3d	9	0.95mi
2791 N Forest Rd Getzville, NY	3.0	1.0	1160	$2,400	$2.07	3d	1	1.08mi
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$2,095	$2.41	1d	9	1.22mi
1525 Amherst Manor Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	1d	5	1.26mi
695 Skinnersville Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1328	$1,990	$1.50	1d	1	1.46mi
1880 Sweet Home Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,030	$2.72	2d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $267,900 Active 1458-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,784 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,156 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,007
• − Property taxes: −$3,784
• − Insurance: −$6,865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$7,793
• Taxable loss: −$10,914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,619
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 5,827
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $267,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,784 · -8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.