3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,367 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Condo
· Active
· 108 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$7,887/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,622
Tax + insurance
−$586
HOA
−$729
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,656
Net cashflow
$2,294/mo
Annual
$27,531/yr
Cap rate
11.80%
Cash-on-cash
19.67%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$139,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $500k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $500k).
It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $455k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $104k; list at $500k implies a 381% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $7,887/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Y2WS6DBZ618157
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29