828 Gulf Pavilion Dr #101 · Naples Park, FL 34108

$499,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,367 sqft · Condo public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1988 $729/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, location, location! Imagine stepping outside and strolling to Vanderbilt Beach in just minutes. Perfectly positioned in the heart of North Naples, this beautifully updated, turnkey-furnished three-bedroom, two-bath end-unit condominium is located in the gated Pavilion Club—within walking distance to The Pavilion Shopping Center, The Marketplace at Pelican Bay, and the vibrant Mercato. Situated on the first floor, this light-filled residence has been thoughtfully refreshed with luxury vinyl tile flooring, an open and updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and new bathroom vanities. The spacious layout offers privacy and comfort, including a serene primary suite with

Key facts

• Gated pavilion club
• Lake views
• Tiki hut

Tags

• GATED PAVILION CLUB
• SCREENED LANAI
• LAKE VIEWS
• WATER FEATURE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• TIKI HUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is part of a complex with 156 units and 8 units per building; Single-floor unit in building; Possession subject to lease
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with on-site management; Quarterly master HOA fee; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, BBQ/picnic area, bike storage, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilities; HOA maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (interior & exterior), trash removal, street maintenance, street lights, manager, legal/accounting, and reserve; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community with on-site management
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise building (1–3 stories); Built in 1988; Located in Pavilion Club community (gated)
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Shutters (screens/fabric) for storm protection; Lake view and lake frontage/irrigation; Zero lot line; Paved road access; Corner carriage/coach style unit; Rear exposure facing south

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Master bedroom on ground level; Additional first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire and high-speed internet available; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Turnkey furnished; Great room floor plan; Breakfast room and combined dining/living area; Screened lanai/porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $500k).
• Recommended offer: $455k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#696 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,887/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($119k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($455k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $500k implies a 381% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $454,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.67%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $107,211
• Equity at exit: $74,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.38×
• Total profit: $472,895
• Equity at exit: $43,222

Cash invested: $139,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34108

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,887 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$377 /mo · $4,528/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$729
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,656
• Net cashflow: $2,294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,982

Max offer price $499,900

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,975
• Closing costs: $14,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
822 Gulf Pavilion Dr #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1275	$6,500	$5.10	23d	1	0.02mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$8,000	$5.28	23d	1	0.04mi
834 Gulf Pavilion Dr #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$5,000	$3.30	21d	1	0.04mi
815 Gulf Pavilion Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$3,500	$2.97	23d	1	0.07mi
840 Gulf Pavilion Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1179	$5,500	$4.66	23d	1	0.07mi
749 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	1417	$3,750	$2.65	13d	1	0.14mi
881 Gulf Pavilion Dr #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$7,500	$4.95	23d	1	0.14mi
737 91st Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$12,750	$8.14	23d	1	0.16mi
829 Reef Point Cir Unit 46 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	23d	1	0.22mi
799 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$5,000	$2.99	23d	1	0.23mi
791 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$9,000	$6.43	23d	1	0.23mi
845 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$4,200	$3.09	23d	1	0.25mi
736 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1820	$3,500	$1.92	23d	1	0.25mi
857 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$7,500	$5.52	23d	1	0.25mi
794 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$6,500	$3.60	23d	1	0.26mi
719 Reef Point Cir #13 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1343	$8,000	$5.96	23d	1	0.26mi
714 Reef Point Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1347	$8,500	$6.31	13d	1	0.29mi
757 95th Ave N Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,150	$1.95	23d	1	0.31mi
768 96th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1735	$11,500	$6.63	23d	1	0.33mi
8385 Excalibur Cir Unit G3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$10,000	$7.24	23d	1	0.35mi
717 95th Ave N Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	1.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	23d	1	0.36mi
9123 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1267	$14,000	$11.05	13d	6	0.37mi
795 Bentwater Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1831	$15,000	$8.19	23d	1	0.37mi
805 Bentwater Cir #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1831	$14,500	$7.92	23d	1	0.39mi
661 Windsurf Ln Unit A-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$7,500	$5.56	13d	1	0.39mi
655 Windsurf Ln Unit 1546357P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,376	$2.34	13d	1	0.39mi
682 95th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$12,500	$7.81	23d	1	0.40mi
8405 Excalibur Cir Unit D3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1382	$9,000	$6.51	23d	1	0.40mi
650 93rd Ave N Unit 1073498P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$5,136	$3.56	13d	1	0.40mi
671 94th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$6,800	$4.64	23d	1	0.41mi
793 97th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$10,500	$6.18	23d	1	0.41mi
649 Beachwalk Cir Unit C101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$7,500	$5.17	13d	1	0.42mi
9115 Strada Pl Naples, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1489	$13,000	$8.73	23d	4	0.43mi
8415 Excalibur Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1522	$11,160	$7.33	23d	1	0.44mi
643 Beachwalk Cir Unit D-202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$5,950	$4.41	13d	1	0.45mi
500 Lambiance Cir Unit 5-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1349	$8,000	$5.93	23d	1	0.45mi
856 98th Ave N Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$4,500	$2.63	23d	1	0.46mi
522 Beachwalk Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1359	$6,000	$4.42	23d	1	0.47mi
1265 Egrets Lndg #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	23d	1	0.47mi
1265 Egrets Lndg #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1584	$3,100	$1.96	23d	1	0.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $729 · $8,748/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $499,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $499,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-04-27
   price $499,900
4. 2026-04-27
   status Active
5. 2026-04-16
   historical
6. 2026-03-18
   price $525,000
7. 2026-02-01
   listed $549,000 Active
8. 2024-12-11
   historical
9. 2024-07-18
   historical $6,500
10. 2024-06-24
    listed $632,000 Active
11. 2024-05-23
    listed $6,500
12. 2015-10-15
    historical
13. 2015-05-23
    listed $340,000 Active
14. 1994-07-15
    soldstatus $104,000
15. 1992-12-30
    soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,528 · $377/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,528 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $94,639
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,002
• − Property taxes: −$4,528
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,571
• − Management: −$7,571
• − HOA: −$8,748
• − Depreciation: −$14,543
• Taxable income: $21,177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,082
• After-tax cash flow: $22,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples Park

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #696
• US rank: #14564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,237
• Household income: $119,212
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -587.97%
• Current HPI: 275.1872
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.74%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+380.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $499,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $525,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $549,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2024-07-18 Rental Removed $6,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listed $632,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed for Rent $6,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2015-10-15 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2015-05-23 Listed $340,000 NAPLESMLS
• 1994-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,528 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.