314 County Road 804

Buna, TX 77612

$86,500B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 230 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,343/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$454
• Tax + insurance: −$394
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $214/mo
• Annual: $2,569/yr
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.90%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $24,220

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $598 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,216 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Buna ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buna El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 702 students, 53% FRL); Buna J H (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 348 students, 46% FRL); Buna H S (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 427 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.