314 County Road 804 · Buna, TX 77612

$86,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

2.00 ac lot ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUD Case # 512-283952. Sold as is. 4 bedroom, 3 bath home situated on 2 acres. Features include 2 living areas, large utility room and pantry. Outdoors features include covered front porch, covered deck, 2 car carport and barn located just off Hwy 62 in Buna ISD

Key facts

• Pantry
• Covered front porch
• Covered deck

Tags

• UTILITY ROOM
• PANTRY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED DECK
• CARPORT
• BARN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a 2-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Barn(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher and range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,216 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Buna ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #342 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buna El (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,283 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 702 students, 53% FRL); Buna J H (math 31% / reading 41%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 348 students, 46% FRL); Buna H S (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 427 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $598 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.90%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-207
• Equity at exit: $12,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $18,084
• Equity at exit: $7,479

Cash invested: $24,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77612

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$454
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,493/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $86,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $263	-5% $239	+0% $214	+5% $190	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $108	-5% $161	+0% $214	+5% $267	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $258	-0.5pp $236	base $214	+0.5pp $192	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,625
• Closing costs: $2,595
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $86,500
3. 2026-01-13
   price $127,160
4. 2025-12-05
   price $149,600
5. 2025-11-03
   price $172,040
6. 2025-09-13
   listed $187,000 Active
7. 2017-09-21
   soldstatus
8. 2015-04-06
   soldstatus $145,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,493 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,845
• − Property taxes: −$3,493
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$2,516
• Taxable income: $1,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$350
• After-tax cash flow: $2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,815
• Composite: 35.83/100
• National rank: #4826
• State rank: #342 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buna

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1216
• US rank: #21222

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,152

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.14%
• Current HPI: 168.7562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $86,500 BBOR
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $127,160 BBOR
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $149,600 BBOR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $172,040 BBOR
• 2025-09-13 Listed $187,000 BBOR
• 2017-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $145,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,493 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.