979 Elk Run Rd

Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$185,000C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Active · 328 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$308
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $968/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($968/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.0% below list).
• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen appliances — Old and worn
• Major: Bathroom cleaning — Cluttered and in need of cleaning
• Major: Exterior siding — Signs of wear