979 Elk Run Rd · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$185,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily · 328 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition 9.35 ac lot $321/sqft · at area comps Est $194k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for that summer retreat or getaway cabin, well here is an ideal home for that. A 1 bedroom 1 bath site-built home with concrete slab foundation on 9.35 acres with new blinds, tile floor, a gas range, solar refrigerator and a washer, dryer. The solar system has (2) $1,500 lithium batteries, with solar panels. There is a separate 625 sq ft bunkhouse with a covered deck and it comes partially furnished along with a storage shed and (2) 1000 gallon water storage tanks. One water storage tank is used for (2) fenced 10x20 raised garden beds. Come take a Look before it is gone.

Key facts

• Lithium batteries
• Solar system
• Solar panels

Tags

• CONCRETE SLAB FOUNDATION
• SOLAR REFRIGERATOR
• GAS RANGE
• SOLAR SYSTEM
• LITHIUM BATTERIES
• SOLAR PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($968/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $185k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,332
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -4.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,332
• Equity at exit: $61,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $46,266
• Equity at exit: $81,056

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,775/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,618

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $145	+0% $81	+5% $17	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $13	+0% $81	+5% $149	+10% $217
Rate	-1.0pp $174	-0.5pp $128	base $81	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 326 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 325 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 324 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 320 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 319 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 316 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 314 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 313 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 310 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 309 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 308 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 307 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 306 DOM
18. 2025-07-27
    listed $185,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Looking for that summer retreat or getaway cabin, well here is an ideal home for that. A 1 bedroom 1 bath site-built home with concrete slab foundation on 9.35 acres with new blinds, tile floor, a gas range, solar refrigerator and a washer, dryer. The solar system has (2) $1,500 lithium batteries, with solar panels. There is a separate 625 sq ft bunkhouse with a covered deck and it comes partially furnished along with a storage shed and (2) 1000 gallon water storage tanks. One water storage tank is used for (2) fenced 10x20 raised garden beds. Come take a Look before it is gone.

19. 2025-07-26
    listed $185,000 Active 585-char remark

    Show marketing remark (585 chars)

    Looking for that summer retreat or getaway cabin, well here is an ideal home for that. A 1 bedroom 1 bath site-built home with concrete slab foundation on 9.35 acres with new blinds, tile floor, a gas range, solar refrigerator and a washer, dryer. The solar system has (2) $1,500 lithium batteries, with solar panels. There is a separate 625 sq ft bunkhouse with a covered deck and it comes partially furnished along with a storage shed and (2) 1000 gallon water storage tanks. One water storage tank is used for (2) fenced 10x20 raised garden beds. Come take a Look before it is gone.

20. 2022-11-14
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed
21. 2022-10-17
    historical
22. 2022-08-11
    price $119,000
23. 2022-01-10
    listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,775
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $1,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This property requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting, flooring replacement, and appliance updates would significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen appliances — Old and worn
• Major Bathroom cleaning — Cluttered and in need of cleaning
• Major Exterior siding — Signs of wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Flooring replacement in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Kitchen appliance replacement — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both Bathroom cleaning and organization — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen appliances · Old and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom cleaning · Cluttered and in need of cleaning	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Signs of wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Flooring replacement in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Kitchen appliance replacement — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Bathroom cleaning and organization — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+23.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-27 Listed $185,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listed $185,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (MLS) $110,000 WMMLS
• 2022-10-17 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2022-08-11 Price Changed $119,000 WMMLS
• 2022-01-10 Listed $150,000 WMMLS